Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

Labriet, Maryse; Joshi, Santosh Ram; Vielle, Marc; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard; Babonneau, Frédéric Louis François

doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7

Cited by 71 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The feedback from the climate on the energy system was calculated from climate model output in advance using a one-way coupling scheme, and the impact of these changes in the energy system on climate was rarely considered in these studies. One exception is the study by Labriet et al (2013), in which the climate change and building energy use was fully coupled with IA and climate models. However, the spatial resolution of climate outputs from this coupled modeling system was low (5 • ), and it may limit the understanding of climate-change impact on building energy use.…”

Section: Building Energy Usementioning

confidence: 99%

The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality

et al. 2015

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Abstract.The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human-Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. The iESM project integrates the economic and humandimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human-Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.

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Section: Building Energy Usementioning

confidence: 99%

The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality

et al. 2015

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“…With respect to the economic impact of changes in energy demand, some studies have assessed the potential changes in gross domestic product (GDP) related to changes in demand for spatial heating and cooling (Eboli et al, 2010;Bosello et al, 2012;Labriet et al, 2013;Roson and van der Mensbrugghe, 2012;Tol, 2013;Dellink et al, 2014). However, it is difficult to reach a robust agreement on the degree of the economic impact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling systems under varying climatic scenarios

et al. 2016

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The building sector is highly sensitive to climate change, where energy is used for numerous purposes such as heating, cooling, cooking and lighting. Space heating and cooling account for a large proportion of overall energy use, and the associated energy demand is also affected by climate change. Here, we project the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple climatic conditions. We use an economic model coupled with an end-use technology model to explicitly represent the investment costs for air-conditioning technologies, which influence the macroeconomy. We conclude that the negative effects on the economy from increases in the use of space cooling are sufficiently large to neutralize the positive impacts from reductions in space heating usage under climate change, which results in significant economic loss. The economic loss under the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5) would correspond to a −0.34% (−0.39% to −0.18%) change in global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2100 compared with GDP without any climate change, while the impact under the lowest emissions scenario (RCP2.6) would result in a −0.03% (−0.07% to −0.01%) change in global GDP in 2100. The economic losses are mainly generated by incremental technological costs and not by changes in energy demand itself. The amount of economic loss can vary substantially based on assumptions of technological costs, population and income. To reduce the negative impacts of climate change measures for reducing the costs of air conditioning will be an important consideration for the building sector in the future.

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“…The methodology was developed for coupling climate models to climate change impact models in the case where the coupling variable from impact to climate model is low dimensional. The method has since been applied to a range of coupling applications [9,11,12]. Here we extend the approach of dimensionally reduced emulation to the case of high dimensional inputs, decomposing both input and output fields and emulating the relationship between the decomposed fields.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs

Edwards

Garthwaite

Wilkinson

2015

Journal of Applied Statistics

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Running complex computer models can be expensive in computer time, while learning about the relationships between input and output variables can be difficult. An emulator is a fast approximation to a computationally expensive model that can be used as a surrogate for the model, to quantify uncertainty or to improve process understanding. Here, we examine emulators based on singular value decompositions and use them to emulate global climate and vegetation fields, examining how these fields are affected by changes in the Earth's orbit. The vegetation field may be emulated directly from the orbital variables, but an appealing alternative is to relate it to emulations of the climate fields, which involves high-dimensional input and output. The singular value decompositions radically reduce the dimensionality of the input and output spaces and are shown to clarify the relationships between them. The method could potentially be useful for any complex process with correlated, highdimensional inputs and/or outputs

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Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

Cited by 71 publications

References 33 publications

The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality

The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality

Quantifying the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling systems under varying climatic scenarios

Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs

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