Predicting 21st century global agricultural land use with a spatially and temporally explicit regression-based model

Haney, Nicholas Ryan; Cohen, Sagy

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.05.010

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Land use is often subject of global change predictions, yet mostly with rough estimations and moreover irrelevant projections over territories without accounting for geographical and land suitability information. Models have recently been proposed for land use change based on spatial inferences (Hany & Cohen, ) that could be extended with soil information to build PTFs for Earth system modeling purposes. The same goes for landscape evolution models, which run on basic equations that contain soil thickness, texture, and structure (Minasny et al, ).…”

Section: Challenges For Ptfs In Earth System Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Pedotransfer Functions in Earth System Science: Challenges and Perspectives

Looy

Bouma

Herbst

et al. 2017

Reviews of Geophysics

415

297

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Soil, through its various functions, plays a vital role in the Earth's ecosystems and provides multiple ecosystem services to humanity. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are simple to complex knowledge rules that relate available soil information to soil properties and variables that are needed to parameterize soil processes. In this paper, we review the existing PTFs and document the new generation of PTFs developed in the different disciplines of Earth system science. To meet the methodological challenges for a successful application in Earth system modeling, we emphasize that PTF development has to go hand in hand with suitable extrapolation and upscaling techniques such that the PTFs correctly represent the spatial heterogeneity of soils. PTFs should encompass the variability of the estimated soil property or process, in such a way that the estimation of parameters allows for validation and can also confidently provide for extrapolation and upscaling purposes capturing the spatial variation in soils. Most actively pursued recent developments are related to parameterizations of solute transport, heat exchange, soil respiration, and organic carbon content, root density, and vegetation water uptake. Further challenges are to be addressed in parameterization of soil erosivity and land use change impacts at multiple scales. We argue that a comprehensive set of PTFs can be applied throughout a wide range of disciplines of Earth system science, with emphasis on land surface models. Novel sensing techniques provide a true breakthrough for this, yet further improvements are necessary for methods to deal with uncertainty and to validate applications at global scale.

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Section: Challenges For Ptfs In Earth System Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Pedotransfer Functions in Earth System Science: Challenges and Perspectives

Looy

Bouma

Herbst

et al. 2017

Reviews of Geophysics

415

297

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Moreover, some countries have been responding to internal rapid urbanization through international land development, which has been identified as having negative consequences both on environment and society (Su, Jiang, Zhang, & Zhang, 2011;Messerli, Giger, Dwyer, Breu, & Eckert, 2014;Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2010). Land use science (Feranec, Jaffrain, Soukup, & Hazeu, 2010) and modelling (Basse, Omrani, Charif, Gerber, & Bódis, 2014) have made impressive progress in producing more accurate results, at larger scales (Haney & Cohen, 2015;Sohl et al, 2012), and with higher spatial-temporal resolution (Bhaskaran, Paramananda, & Ramnarayan, 2010;Tavares, Pato, & Magalhães, 2012;Soares Machado et al, 2014). However, the effectiveness of policies implemented to regulate land use change, and how and at which spatial scale these policies should be implemented for sustainability targets (He et al, 2013;Hewitt & Escobar, 2011) have only recently engaged scientific research and such questions have not been approached systematically with spatially explicit data (Stürck, Schulp, & Verburg, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the impact of urban growth on agriculture and natural land in Italy to 2030

et al. 2018

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The uncontrolled spread of towns and cities into their surrounding rural and natural land, and the consequent increasing demand for new natural resources are among the most important drivers of global climate and environmental change. This study investigated the loss of natural and agricultural land in Italy in the last decades, during which urban areas have undergone significant expansion. The study underlines the negative consequences of past uncoordinated urban and regional planning in Italy which often featured adaptive ex-post strategies favouring real estate market returns, rather than avoiding ex-ante the unsustainable threats. The aim is to show that only through a recalibration of priorities in planning, by adding policies that favour ecological conservation, it is possible to better foster sustainable land use practices. To this end, the research features a comparison of forecasts of land-use/cover changes (LUCC) corresponding to different policy-oriented scenarios, using a combination of multi criteria analysis and cellular automata modelling. In the planning literature there are many applications of land-use change modelling at the regional/local scale, however to the best of our knowledge, none does it at high resolution and at the full country scale. This sort of analysis is important for policy makers because it allows investigation of the combined relevance of local and global criteria in influencing urbanization for the future. Thus it couples locally relevant findings with a comprehensive vision of the phenomenon at a national scale. We conclude by discussing some critical socioeconomic implications of the modelled scenarios in order to provide policy makers with useful tools and information to develop resilient and sustainable planning strategies.

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“…Land use change has been selected as a core research project of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) [7]. Many studies have analyzed the dynamics and patterns of land use change at different levels (i.e., at the global, continent, country, or city level) and in different time periods, concluding that although agricultural land expansion, urban sprawl, and forest loss have been major manifestations of global land use change, significant variations have been observed at continental, national, and regional levels due to differences in the underlying drivers, including demographic, economic, sociocultural, institutional, technological, and biophysical indicators [8][9][10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Use Change in Coastal Cities during the Rapid Urbanization Period from 1990 to 2016: A Case Study in Ningbo City, China

et al. 2019

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Coastal cities have been experiencing tremendous land use changes worldwide. Studies on the consequences of land use change in coastal cities have provided helpful information for spatial regulations and have attracted increased attention. Changes in forests and water bodies, however, have rarely been investigated, challenging the formation of a holistic pattern of land use change. In this study, we selected Ningbo, China, as a case study area and analyzed its land use change from 1990 to 2016. Random forest (RF) classification was employed to derive land use information from Landsat images. Transition matrices and a distribution index (DI) were applied to identify the major types of land use transitions and their spatial variations by site-specific attributes. The results showed that the entire time period could be divided into two stages, based on the manifestations of land use change in Ningbo: 1990–2005 and 2005–2016. During 1990–2005, construction land expanded rapidly, mainly through the occupation of agricultural land and forest, while during 2005–2016, the main change trajectory turned out to be a small net change in construction land and a net increase in agricultural land sourced from construction land, forests, and water bodies. In terms of land use change by site-specific attributes, the rapid expansion of construction land around the municipal city center during 1990–2005 was restrained, and similar amounts of land conversion between construction and agricultural use occurred during 2005–2016. During the study period, areas undergoing land use change also showed trends of moving outward from the municipal city center and the county centers located adjacent to roads and the coastline and of moving up to hilly areas with steeper slopes and higher elevations. Protecting reclaimed agricultural land, improving the efficiency of construction land, and controlling forest conversion in hilly areas are suggested as spatial regulations in Ningbo city.

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Predicting 21st century global agricultural land use with a spatially and temporally explicit regression-based model

Cited by 11 publications

References 16 publications

Pedotransfer Functions in Earth System Science: Challenges and Perspectives

Pedotransfer Functions in Earth System Science: Challenges and Perspectives

Modelling the impact of urban growth on agriculture and natural land in Italy to 2030

Land Use Change in Coastal Cities during the Rapid Urbanization Period from 1990 to 2016: A Case Study in Ningbo City, China

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