Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity

Olson, John R.

doi:10.1098/rstb.2018.0005

Cited by 70 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The percentage of salinized rivers and streams in Spain exceeded 25%. This percentage is similar, although slightly lower, to those reported for North America by Kaushal and colleagues [21], who found that 37% of streams and rivers were salinized and Olson [57], who recently estimated that 34% of Figure 3. Map evidencing the degree of salinization of Spanish rivers.…”

Section: (C) Causes Extent and Location Of River Salinizationsupporting

confidence: 85%

Drivers of spatio-temporal patterns of salinity in Spanish rivers: a nationwide assessment

Estévez

Rodríguez-Castillo

González-Ferreras

et al. 2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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The salinization of freshwaters is a global water quality problem that leads to the biological degradation of aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the spatial extent of freshwater salinization and the relative contribution of each human activity (e.g. agriculture, urbanization, mining or shale-gas extraction). Here, we investigated environmental factors that explain spatio-temporal patterns of water salinity and examined the causes, the extent and the degree of salinization of Spanish rivers. Results showed a strong variation in water salinity among river typologies and between river reaches in good and poor ecological status according to the Water Framework Directive. The variation in water salinity was largely explained by a combination of natural (i.e. climate and geology) and anthropogenic (i.e. land use) factors. By contrast, land use factors as urbanization and agriculture were the main drivers of salinization, which affected more than one quarter of the rivers and streams in Spain, especially those in the most arid regions (central and southern regions) and in the main courses of the largest rivers such as the Ebro, Douro and Tajo rivers. The information provided here can be relevant to set priority regions and actions to ameliorate freshwater salinization. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects’.

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Section: (C) Causes Extent and Location Of River Salinizationsupporting

confidence: 85%

Drivers of spatio-temporal patterns of salinity in Spanish rivers: a nationwide assessment

Estévez

Rodríguez-Castillo

González-Ferreras

et al. 2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…An increase in EC was also found over the past decades in the United States (US) and Australia but mainly driven by anthropogenic factors including mining, resources extraction, agriculture and urbanization. A large proportion of the streams (37%) in the US have been impacted by increasing EC over the past 50 years [18] and the predicted rate of increase in EC is 50% [51]. In Australia, the predicted rates of average river salinity change for the period from 1998 to 2100 showed strong regional differences.…”

Section: (B) Forecast Future Ecmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting current and future background ion concentrations in German surface water under climate change

Kattwinkel

Schützenmeister

et al. 2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Salinization of surface waters is a global environmental issue that can pose a regional risk to freshwater organisms, potentially leading to high environmental and economic costs. Global environmental change including climate and land use change can increase the transport of ions into surface waters. We fit both multiple linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models on a large spatial dataset to predict Ca 2+ (266 sites), Mg 2+ (266 sites), and (357 sites) ion concentrations as well as electrical conductivity (EC—a proxy for total dissolved solids with 410 sites) in German running water bodies. Predictions in both types of models were driven by the major factors controlling salinity including geologic and soil properties, climate, vegetation and topography. The predictive power of the two types of models was very similar, with RF explaining 71–76% of the spatial variation in ion concentrations and LR explaining 70–75% of the variance. Mean squared errors for predictions were all smaller than 0.06. The factors most strongly associated with stream ion concentrations varied among models but rock chemistry and climate were the most dominant. The RF model was subsequently used to forecast the changes in EC that were likely to occur for the period of 2070 to 2100 in response to just climate change—i.e. no additional effects of other anthropogenic activities. The future forecasting shows approximately 10% and 15% increases in mean EC for representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects’.

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“…Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to the increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. Most of the change is related to the extent of human land uses, with climate change accounting for only 12% of the increase (Olson, 2019). However, land salinization and degradation are aggravated by the vulnerability of the sensitive arid lowlands to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges for the sustainable use of water and land resources under a changing climate and increasing salinization in the Jizzakh irrigation zone of Uzbekistan

et al. 2020

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Jizzakh Province in Uzbekistan is one of the largest irrigated areas in Central Asia without natural drainage. In combination with aridity, climate change and extensive irrigation practices, this has led to the widespread salinization of agricultural land. The aim of this study was to identify opportunities to improve the reclamation status of the irrigated area and how best to effectively use the water resources in Jizzakh Province based on investigations conducted between 1995 and 2016. A database of field measurements of groundwater levels, mineralization and soil salinity conducted by the provincial Hydro-Geological Reclamation Expeditions was used in the study. The total groundwater mineralization was determined using a portable electric conductometer (Progress 1T) and the chloride concentration was determined using the Mohr method. The soil salinity analyses were conducted by applying two different methods: (1) the extraction and assessment of the soluble salt content, and (2) using an SM-138 conductivity sensor applied to a 1:1 mixture of soil sample and water. The analyses of the monitoring results and the salt balance in the "irrigation water-soil-drainage water" system clearly demonstrated that the condition of the irrigated land in the province was not significantly improved. Under these conditions, the stability of crop yields is achieved mainly through the use of large volumes of fertilizer. However, excess amounts of mineral fertilizers can also cause the salinization of soils. The average groundwater salinization value in most of the irrigated land (75.3%) fluctuated between 1.1 and 5.0 g/L, while the values were less than 1.0 g/L in 13.1% of the land and in the range of 5.1-10.0 g/L in 10.5% of the land. During the period of 1995-2016 the salinization level of the irrigated land in Jizzakh Province increased slightly and the area could be divided into the following classes: no salinity (17.7% of the total area), low salinity (51.3%), moderate salinity (29.0%), and high salinity (2.0%). Detailed studies of the salt balance in irrigated land, the impact of climate change, increased fertilizer use, and repeated remediation leaching on the groundwater level and mineralization should be conducted in the future, due to the possibility of accelerated salinization, fertility decline, and reduced yields of agricultural crops. Citation: Rashid KULMATOV, Jasur MIRZAEV, Jilili ABUDUWAILI, Bakhtiyor KARIMOV. 2020. Challenges for the Rashid KULMATOV et al.: Challenges for the sustainable use of water and land resources under a changing… 91 sustainable use of water and land resources under a changing climate and increasing salinization in the Jizzakh irrigation zone of Uzbekistan. Journal of Arid Land, 12(1): 90-103. https://doi.

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Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity

Cited by 70 publications

References 30 publications

Drivers of spatio-temporal patterns of salinity in Spanish rivers: a nationwide assessment

Drivers of spatio-temporal patterns of salinity in Spanish rivers: a nationwide assessment

Predicting current and future background ion concentrations in German surface water under climate change

Challenges for the sustainable use of water and land resources under a changing climate and increasing salinization in the Jizzakh irrigation zone of Uzbekistan

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