Predicting COVID-19 Spread in Pakistan using the SIR Model

Abstract

The global pandemic of COVID-19 has raised several questions and attracted researchers from all of the disciplines of scientific research. Regardless of advances in science and technology, equipped laboratories of virology, high literacy rates, and medical resources in developed countries, several nations and their health care systems completely failed to overcome the disaster. The fast spread is caused by frequent air travel for business, tourism, education, etc. COVID-19 can infect third world countries severely. United States of America has the highest per capita spending of health still 1/3 rd of the global burden of COVID-19 has consumed existing resources. The WHO has declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. More than 200 countries and territories have reported infected cases. The quarantine is the most effective way to slow the spread of disease and "Flatting of Curve" is a phenomenon to tackle the surge by health systems. To achieve good results from existing Medical Health Care Systems (MHCS), an accurate prediction for the spread of disease is crucial. This study utilizes the generalized method of SIR to accurately predict the spread of COVID-19 associated infection, recoveries, and deaths in Pakistan. The data from the National Command and Control of Pakistan (NCCP) is utilized. Through multiple cases applied on currently available data, the proposed mathematical models predict that by the end of April about more than 14553 infected and about 310 deaths are in Pakistan. The recovery rate is highest in the region up to 99.87 %.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Caused by (SARS-CoV-2) Infections: A Real Challenge for Human Gut Microbiota

“…The pandemic situation put great emphasis on the use of mathematical calculations to be used as linear regression tools or even machine learning models to predict the number of cases (Parry et al, 2020;Syed et al, 2020). Up to September 4, 2020, the top three countries with the highest number of infected cases are represented by the US, Brazil, and India (Shah et al, 2020). A comprehensive list of pulmonary and extrapulmonary manifestations of the COVID-19 has been reported (Aziz et al, 2020;Gandhi et al, 2020;Johnson et al, 2020;Perisetti et al, 2020c).…”

Stem cell therapies and benefaction of somatic cell nuclear transfer cloning in COVID-19 era

“…Especially countries with weak economies, limited resources, and poorly developed health system are in big trouble [ 1 – 3 ]. However, the prevalence rates of infection in developed countries like the USA and several other countries are very high [ 4 , 5 ]. But, these countries have ample healthcare facilities for patients to compensate for their technology and research and provide better protection to their frontline medical practitioners.…”

An Improved COVID-19 Forecasting by Infectious Disease Modelling Using Machine Learning

“…Predicting COVID-19 spread must be considered as it has the potential to aid the time-sensitive resolutions of healthcare personnel, strengthening the advancement of prevention strategies. In the literature, different mathematical epidemic surveillance models [2][3][4] have been presented related to COVID-19 diseases to forecast and predict disease occurrence patterns and trends under different situations. These patterns enable policies at the government level to stop the spread of disease and decrease the chance of infection.…”