Predicting Diabetes and Estimating Its Economic Burden in China Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Yan

BioMed Research International

2022

Objectives. Psoriasis is a skin disease thought to be related to immune system dysfunction. Our study is aimed at analyzing the prevalence of psoriasis in China in multiple different categories and compared the prevalence at the global level, in order to bring insights to policymakers for treating this disease. Methods. We analyzed psoriasis trends from 1990 to 2019 in China as well as around the globe with data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Multiple metrics such as age-standardized prevalence rates, percent change in age-standardized prevalence rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age and sex patterns were included. We also predicted the trends of psoriasis prevalence and DALYs in the following 30 years. Results. In China, the age-specific prevalence cases showed a right shift in 2019 compared to 1990 with a peak between the ages of 50 and 54 years and an obvious surpass in males between 40 and 69. Though China still had the largest number of psoriasis cases in 2019, the increase rate was below global level. A positive linear relationship between psoriasis prevalence and comorbidities was seen with rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, nonrheumatic valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, nonmelanoma skin cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and multiple myeloma in China within the male group in 2019. Discussion. The burden of psoriasis, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase around the world. The scarcity of modifiable risks for most psoriasis burdens suggests that new knowledge is needed to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Burden of Psoriasis in China and Global Level from 1990 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Yan

BioMed Research International

2022

“…In this study, we predicted from Model 1 that by 2025, the DM population in China would be 153.90 million, which is higher than the 100 million estimated in a previous study [43]. We also predicted that by 2035, 174.89 million people in China would be diabetic, 10 years ahead of the previous study, which predicted that there would be 174.4 million diabetic people in 2045 [5].…”

Section: Projections Of Dm Intervention Costmentioning

confidence: 48%

“…However, their study did not include large national survey data in China when predicting the DM population and did not predicted for the year 2050. A recent Chinese study used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to estimate the DM population and its economic burden from 2020 to 2025 [43]. This model predicted that by 2025, the DM population in China would be approximately 100 million and the financial burden of diabetes would be nearly 170 billion.…”

Section: Projections Of Dm Intervention Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamic Model Simulates the Growth Trend of Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Population: Implications for Future Urban Public Health Governance

Li¹,

Chang²,

Jiang³

et al. 2022

Int J Public Health

Objectives: To simulate the growth trend of diabetes mellitus in Chinese population.Methods: The system dynamic modeling methodology was used to establish a population prediction model of diabetes with or without cardiovascular diseases. Lifestyle therapy and the use of metformin, acarbose, and voglibose were assumed to be intervention strategy. The outcomes will be examined at 5, 15, and 30 years after 2020.Results: The projected number of diabetic population in China would increase rapidly from 141.65 million in 2020 to 202.84 million in 2050. Diabetic patients with cardiovascular disease would rapidly increase from 65.58 million in 2020 to 122.88 million by 2050. The annual cost for the entire population with diabetes mellitus in China would reach 182.55 billion by 2050. When the treatment of cardiovascular disease was considered, expenditure was 1.5–2.5-fold higher. Lifestyle therapy and the use of metformin, acarbose and voglibose could effectively slow the growth of the diabetic population.Conclusion: The diabetic population in China is expected to increase rapidly, and diabetic patients with cardiovascular disease will increase greatly. Interventions could delay it.

Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.

“…Low- and middle-income countries, which have the largest burden of tuberculosis, have seen the greatest growth in diabetes ( Liu et al., 2022 ). The number of persons with diabetes is estimated to be approximately 100 million in 2025 in China ( Zhu et al., 2021 ). Several studies have suggested that diabetes may increase the risk of latent tuberculosis infection ( Lee et al., 2017 ; Barron et al., 2018 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The association between diabetes status and latent-TB IGRA levels from a cross-sectional study in eastern China

Chen

Shao

et al. 2023

BackgroundThere is a debate regarding the sensitivity of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) among people with diabetes, and prior studies have shown heterogeneous results. We evaluated whether the QFT TB antigen was modified among persons with differing diabetes status and other related risk factors.MethodsA cross-sectional study of 5,302 people was conducted to screen latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in eastern China. The QFT assay was performed as an indicator of LTBI. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was collected from each participant; the definition of diabetes followed the guidelines from the American Diabetes Association. Participants were classified into normoglycemia, prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and previously diagnosed diabetes to evaluate the relationship between the QFT TB antigen and distinct diabetes status.ResultsTB antigen values from the QFT were statistically different among participants with differing diabetes status (P = 0.008). Persons with undiagnosed diabetes had a higher TB antigen value (0.96 ± 0.20) than persons with normoglycemia (0.50 ± 0.02, P < 0.05). However, the TB antigen values demonstrated no significant difference among the four different diabetic groups when stratified by the standard cutoff for the QFT (P = 0.492 for the positive group and P = 0.368 for the negative group). In a linear regression model, we found that FPG, age, and smoking were positively associated with the QFT TB antigen value (P = 0.017, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001).ConclusionsDiabetes status had little influence on the level of QFT TB antigen response among IGRA-positive persons. However, FPG, old age, and smoking were important risk factors for increasing levels of QFT TB antigen.