Predicting distribution of major forest tree species to potential impacts of climate change in the central Himalayan region

Chakraborty, Anusheema; Joshi, P. K.; Sachdeva, Kamna

doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.10.006

Cited by 87 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 120 publications

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“…Furthermore, SDMs have been used to model invasive species habitat suitability and proliferation (Roura-Pascual et al, 2008;Poulus et al, 2012;Thuiller and Richardson, 2005), recommend areas for threatened and/or endangered species (Bombi et al, 2009;Puschendorf et al, 2009) and predict distribution of native or endemic species (Evangelista et al, 2008). Similar to this effort are reports on the projection of species distribution into future conditions using global circulation models representing various climate scenarios (Nabout et al, 2010;Yates et al, 2009;Khanum et al, 2013;Chakraborty et al, 2016). We evaluated several algorithms and used the best performing ones with worldwide occurrence data to produce suitability A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T 4 maps using climate datasets representing future climate change scenarios based on representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070.…”

Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 95%

A performance based consensus approach for predicting spatial extent of the Chinese windmill palm ( Trachycarpus fortunei ) in New Zealand under climate change

Aguilar

Blanchon

Foote

et al. 2017

Ecological Informatics

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Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 95%

A performance based consensus approach for predicting spatial extent of the Chinese windmill palm ( Trachycarpus fortunei ) in New Zealand under climate change

Aguilar

Blanchon

Foote

et al. 2017

Ecological Informatics

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“…Besides, we downloaded corresponding layers of the period 2021-2040 from CGIAR web portal (http://www.ccafs-clima te.org) for the subsequent migration analysis. Like other studies (Chakraborty, Joshi, & Sachdeva, 2016;Zhang, Yao, Meng, & Tao, 2018), we assumed SR and WS to remain unchanged when projected into the future. Finally, all raster data were extracted to the regional extent of the study area with ArcGIS 10.3 (Esri).…”

Section: Yalung Tsangpomentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Liao

Zhang

Nobis

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions. Location The mountains of Southwest China. Methods We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios). Results The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC. Main conclusions Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.

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“…forests, and (ii) pine (Pinus spp.) forests (Chakraborty et al 2016c). The site selection of the two locations, V Oak and V Pine , was based on identified forest patches likely to undergo changes in their geographical distribution under uncertain future climate scenarios ( Fig.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies have also reported significant forest cover changes in the central Himalayan region (Gairola et al 2013;Mishra and Chaudhuri 2015). Such changes in forests have often been attributed to either anthropogenic pressures, such as increasing population causing forest loss in the past Chakraborty et al 2016b;Batar et al 2017;Chakraborty et al 2017), or natural causes such as climate change that are likely to alter potential distribution of forests in the future (Rashid et al 2015;Upgupta et al 2015;Bhatta and Vetaas 2016;Chakraborty et al 2016c).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Capturing forest dependency in the central Himalayan region: Variations between Oak (Quercus spp.) and Pine (Pinus spp.) dominated forest landscapes

Chakraborty

Joshi

Sachdeva

2017

Ambio

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Our study explores the nexus between forests and local communities through participatory assessments and household surveys in the central Himalayan region. Forest dependency was compared among villages surrounded by oak-dominated forests (n = 8) and pine-dominated forests (n = 9). Both quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate variations in the degree of dependency based on proximity to nearest forest type. Households near oak-dominated forests were more dependent on forests (83.8%) compared to households near pine-dominated forests (69.1%). Forest dependency is mainly subsistence-oriented for meeting basic household requirements. Livestock population, cultivated land per household, and non-usage of alternative fuels are the major explanatory drivers of forest dependency. Our findings can help decision and policy makers to establish nested governance mechanisms encouraging prioritized site-specific conservation options among forest-adjacent households. Additionally, income diversification with respect to alternate livelihood sources, institutional reforms, and infrastructure facilities can reduce forest dependency, thereby, allowing sustainable forest management.

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Predicting distribution of major forest tree species to potential impacts of climate change in the central Himalayan region

Cited by 87 publications

References 120 publications

A performance based consensus approach for predicting spatial extent of the Chinese windmill palm ( Trachycarpus fortunei ) in New Zealand under climate change

A performance based consensus approach for predicting spatial extent of the Chinese windmill palm ( Trachycarpus fortunei ) in New Zealand under climate change

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Capturing forest dependency in the central Himalayan region: Variations between Oak (Quercus spp.) and Pine (Pinus spp.) dominated forest landscapes

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