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The Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) is a significant horticultural pest in Australia, and has also established in other parts of the Pacific. There is a significant risk to New Zealand of invasion by this species, and several recent incursions have occurred. The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and impacts of invasive species are well known. This paper uses species distribution modelling using Maxent to predict the suitability of New Zealand to the Queensland fruit fly based on known occurrences worldwide and Bioclim climatic layers. Under current climatic conditions the majority of the country was generally in the lower range, with some areas in the medium range. Suitability prediction maps under future climate change conditions in 2050 and 2070, at lower emission (RCP 2.6) and higher emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios generally show an increase in suitability in both the North and South Islands. Calculations of the shift of suitable areas show a general movement of the centroid towards the south-east, with the higher emission scenario showing a greater magnitude of movement.

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