Predicting Geothermal Reserves of Sorik-Marapi Field through Monte-Carlo Simulation Study

Simulasi ini bertujuan untuk memperkirakan jumlah kedatangan mahasiswa training. Data yang di olah dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 3 periode yang bersumber dari bagian administrasi sebuah perusahan swasta di Sumatera Barat. Data akan di proses dan dilakukan perhitungan dengan metode Monte Carlo. Selain itu implementasi perhitungan akan di kembangkan dengan menggunakan sistem berbasis aplikasi yang akan dibangun dengan bahasa pemrograman PHP. Hasil yang diberikan oleh sistem dalam melakukan prediksi yaitu 80% untuk tahun 2017 dan 84% untuk tahun 2018. Dari hasil keakuratan sebesar 80% tahun 2017 dan 84% 2018 maka dari itu sistem bisa dikatakan cukup baik untuk diterapkan. Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data dengan metode Monte Carlo dapat diprediksi jumlah kedatangan mahasiswa untuk melakukan taraining, serta proses pengambilan keputusan yang baik kedepannya.

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“…Jurnal Informasi dan Teknologi Vol . 4 No. 1 (2022) 9- 13 13 membantu dalam memprediksi kedatangan mahasiswa training.…”

Section: Daftar Rujukanunclassified

“…Simulasi ini menggunakan data yang sudah ada (historical data). Dengan kata lain, apabila ingin menggunakan model simulasi yang di dalamnya terdapat random dan sampling dengan distribusi probabilitas yang dapat diketahui maka cara simulasi Monte Carlo ini dapat digunakan [4]. Dalam simulasi Monte Carlo sebuah model dibangun berdasarkan sistem yang sebenarnya.…”

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Prediction of the Number of Arrivals of Training Students With the Monte Carlo Method

Sapriadi¹,

Yunus

Dari

2022

jidt

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“…Metode model dan simulasi Monte Carlo adalah bentuk simulasi probabilistic yang mana solusi dari suatu permasalahan yang diberikan mendasari kepada proses ngacak [15], [16], [17]. Jadi pada model simulasi ini terdapat random dan ssmpling dengan distribusi probabilitas yang sudah kitaketahui maka cara simulasi Monte Carlo ini sudah bisa dipakai dan dipergunakan [18], [19]. Pada simulasi Monte Carlo ini modelnya dibangun berdasarkan sistem yang nyata dilapangan.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Pemodelan Simulasi dalam Pengoptimalan Penjualan Plastik HD Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Rahayu¹,

Thoriq²,

Sapriadi³

2022

jidt

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Simulation modeling is used as a tool to see a picture of the company's condition in the future and as a forum for making a decision. Currently, sales are an important activity and a factor that must be considered in future planning. The purpose of sales is to bring profit or profit from products or services produced with good management. Simulation can help solve everyday problems such as existing problems, with simulation applications estimating the number of sales is very important. If someone can predict the number of sales, the cost of procurement and storage of goods can be minimized. From this, several parties can bring in profits as much as possible, and minimize losses. There are 18 sales sample data processed in this study, namely sales data from 2021 to 2022. Sales data is processed using the Monte Carlo method from January 2021 to June 2021 to predict results for July to December 2021. Then for July to December 2021 to predict the results for January to June 2022. The data is tested with various elements of probability using a random sample. A powerful numerical calculation tool by simulating statistical data, this simulation obtains accurate accuracy values from the observable physical form of the system. Implementation of calculations will be developed using an application-based system that will be built with the JAVA programming language. The test results that have been obtained in the form of the average number of product requests and average income will be used as an estimate of sales (state estimate) that can assist in making decisions based on the information that has been obtained. The data obtained has an accuracy rate of up to 80%.

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“…Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam bentuk simulasi probabilistik yang memberikan solusi dari suatu permasalahan berdasarkan pada proses bilngan acak [14], [15], [16]. Model simulasi ini memiliki bilangan random dan sampling dengan distribusi probabilitas yang dapat diketahui dan dapat digunakan [17], [18]. Penelitian ini menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo dengan model sistem yang dibangun berdasarkan keadaan nyata dilapangan.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Pupuk Urea dengan Metode Monte Carlo

Dari

2022

jidt

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The development of science and information technology over time is very rapid in today's era, one of which is the agricultural sector. In the agricultural sector, there are many things that utilize technology, such as shallot cultivation. The need for shallots is very high, so many farmers plant shallots. To produce shallots of good quality and have a high selling price, farmers provide nutrition for the shallots they plant. The nutrient that onions really need is urea fertilizer. The fluctuating need for fertilizer for each farmer results in the availability of fertilizer in Kiosks often experiencing shortages. This has an impact on the scarcity of the availability of urea fertilizer. So this research was carried out to predict the level of sales of urea fertilizer in maintaining the need for fertilizer for shallot plants at Kiosk Pak De. Fertilizer availability aims to prepare stocks to avoid scarcity at a later time. The method used in this study is the Monte Carlo Method. This method is a method that can predict based on repeated random sampling. This method can also be used in various aspects of imputation systems and prediction of missing data. The data used in this study are sales data for urea fertilizer from 2020 to 2021. Sales data for 2020 are used to predict sales for 2021 and sales data for 2021 are used to predict sales for 2022. The results obtained from this study are the prediction rate for in 2020 with an accuracy rate of 92% and an accuracy in 2021 of 92.25%. From these results it can be concluded that this method can help Kios Pak De in maintaining scarcity in the sale of urea fertilizer

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Predicting Geothermal Reserves of Sorik-Marapi Field through Monte-Carlo Simulation Study

Cited by 3 publications

References 6 publications

Prediction of the Number of Arrivals of Training Students With the Monte Carlo Method

Prediction of the Number of Arrivals of Training Students With the Monte Carlo Method

Pemodelan Simulasi dalam Pengoptimalan Penjualan Plastik HD Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Pupuk Urea dengan Metode Monte Carlo

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