Predicting Individual Wellbeing Through Test Scores: Evidence from a National Assessment in Mexico

Abstract

We construct two longitudinal datasets that record students' test scores in a national standardized exam in Mexico and track students from the end of primary (Grade 6) to the end of lower (Grade 9) and upper (Grade 12) secondary school, then to university and labor market participation up to two years after graduation from upper secondary. Our results show that test scores are a strong predictor of future education and labor market outcomes. Using a large sample of twins in our data, we show that the relationship between Grade 6 test scores and future education outcomes goes beyond family background. Finally, we exploit the within-individual correlation between subject test scores and find evidence that this standardized assessment captures in a meaningful way the specific skills that it is designed to measure. These results show that, despite their limitations, large-scale standardized tests can capture skills that are important for future individual wellbeing. RESUMENEn este estudio, construimos dos bases de datos longitudinales que vinculan a nivel individual registros de una prueba estandarizada aplicada a nivel nacional en México. En específico, aparejamos los resultados que obtiene una cohorte de estudiantes al término de la escuela primaria (grado 6), secundaria (grado 9) y media superior (grado 12); y los puntajes en grado 9 de otra cohorte con información acerca de su educación universitaria y participación en el mercado laboral hasta dos años después de concluidos sus estudios de nivel medio superior. Nuestros resultados muestran que los puntajes en esta prueba tienen un alto poder predictivo sobre las trayectorias educativas y laborales a futuro. Utilizando información de una muestra de gemelos en nuestra base de datos, documentamos que la relación entre puntajes en grado 6 y trayectorias educativas a futuro es altamente significativa incluso cuando se compara a individuos con un origen familiar idéntico. Finalmente, utilizando la correlación intra-individuo de puntajes entre materias encontramos evidencia de que esta prueba captura las habilidades específicas que busca medir. Estos resultados muestran que a pesar de sus limitaciones, las pruebas estandarizadas pueden capturar habilidades que son importantes para el bienestar.Small sections of text, that are less than two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission as long as this document is stated. Findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of its author(s), and it cannot be, in any way, attributed to CAF, its Executive Directors or the countries they represent. CAF does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and is not, in any way, responsible for any consequences resulting from its use. AbstractWe construct two longitudinal datasets that record students' test scores in a national standardized exam in Mexico and track students from the end of primary (Grade 6) to the end of lower (Grade 9) and upper (Grade 12) secondary school, then to university and labo...

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