Background & Aims
The incidence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is believed to be increasing; we investigated whether this is the result of increasing burden of disease or more diagnostic scrutiny.
Methods
In a retrospective cohort study, we calculated a trend in reported incidence of IPMN using data collected from Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1985 to 2005. Total IPMN cases from the Olmsted database were identified through keyword and ICD-9 search using a database from the Rochester Epidemiology Project, with all cases verified by subsequent chart review. The subsequent rate of IPMN-related carcinoma was calculated using data from the national SEER-9 database, reflecting trends from 1982 to 2007. Cases of IPMN-related carcinoma were identified in the SEER database by limiting the search to histology codes for non-invasive and invasive IPMN.
Results
Between 1985 and 2005, there was a 14-fold increase in the age and sex-adjusted incidence of IPMN, from 0.31 to 4.35 per 100,000 persons. From 2000 to 2001, the rate of reported carcinoma increased from .008 to .032 per 100,000 persons, but stabilized afterward, with a rate of .06 per 100,000 persons in 2007. Mortality from all causes of pancreatic cancer was stable between 1975 and 2007 (approximately 11 deaths per 100, 000 individuals).
Conclusion
The incidence of IPMN has increased in the absence of a rise in IPMN-related or overall pancreatic cancer-related mortality, so it likely results from an increase in diagnostic scrutiny, rather than greater numbers of patients with clinically relevant disease.