Predicting potential current distribution of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) using MaxEnt model in South Korea

Abstract

26Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) is invasive insect in Korea which causes 27 plant damages by sucking and sooty molds. Lycorma delicatula was first detected in South 28 Korea in 2004, where its introduction and spreading possibly were affected by human activity-29 related factors. Here, we used MaxEnt to describe current distribution of L. delicatula in Korea 30and tried to find out the impact of human influences for distribution. We used 143 sites of 31 occurrence data, 19 bioclimatic variables, duration of temperature below -11°C, average daily 32 minimum temperature in January, cumulative thermal unit variable, the distribution of grape 33 orchard variable and human footprint to create models. These models were estimated by two 34 sets of 24 candidates with feature combinations and regularization multipliers. In addition, 35 these two sets were created as models with and without footprint for how human influence 36 affect to distribution. Model selection for optimal model was performed by selecting a model 37 with a lowest sum of each rank in small sample-size corrected Akaike's information criterion 38 and difference between training and test AUC. Model of LQ10 parameter combinations was 39 selected as optimal models for both model sets. Consequently, both of distribution maps from 40 these models showed similar patterns of presence probability for L. delicatula. Both models 41 expected that low altitude regions were relatively more suitable than mountain areas in Korea. 42 Footprint might be limited for the distribution and L. delicatula might already occupy most of 43 available habitats. Human-related factors might contribute to spread of L. delicatula to 44 uninfected areas. 45 46 Asia [1]. In Korea, L. delicatula was first detected in Cheonan in 2004 [2], and then expanded 50 across South Korea for more than a decade [3]. Since its first detection, the agricultural area, 51 mostly grapevine yards, damaged by L. delicatula increased rapidly from one ha in 2006, 52 seven ha in [4, 5]. According to 53 Park et al. [3], L. delicatula might disperse more frequently in the western region and its long-54 distance dispersal could be possible beyond the mountain range. These rapid spread might 55 be caused by human-related factors such as vehicles which mainly could transfer a host plant 56 or other material with its egg masses [6]. 57 A few studies have been conducted for determining potential habitats and habitat 58 suitability of L. delicatula. Jung et al. [7] estimated the potential habitats of L. delicatula in 59Korea by using CLIMEX, which is a mechanistic modelling method based on physiological 60 traits and constraints [7]. The CLIMEX requires the biological parameters related with the 61 target insects such as optimal temperature, lower developmental threshold, lethal temperature, 62 optimal humidity and so on [8]. Nevertheless, information on the biological parameters for L. 63 delicatula was limited, and thus estimated potential habitats were not exactly matched with 64 the current d...

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“…SDM is known as versatile model and approach that have been used to predict potential distribution of species. It is very useful to anticipate the spread of species that can has negative impacts including Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) an invasive insect (Namgung et al 2020), Tephritid pests invasions (Godefroid et al 2015), and talaromycosis, an invasive mycosis (Wei et al 2021).…”