Predicting the Current and Future Distributions of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) Based on the MaxEnt Species Distribution Model

Abstract

Climate change has a highly significant impact on the distribution of species. As the greenhouse effect intensifies each year, the distribution of organisms responds to this challenge in diverse ways. Therefore, climatic environmental variables are a key entry point for capturing the current and future distribution trends of pests. Frankliniella occidentalis is an invasive pest attested worldwide. Its damage is mainly divided into two aspects, including mechanical damage caused by its feeding and egg laying and the spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV). TSWV is the most dominant transmitted virulent disease. Moreover, F. occidentalis is the major vector for the transmission of this virus, which poses a grave threat to the yield and survival of our crops. In this study, the distribution pattern of this pest was explored using 19 bioclimatic variables based on the Maxent model. The results indicated that in the future, high-suitability areas of F. occidentalis will be widely distributed in 19 provinces of China, with Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Tianjin and Yunnan being the most abundant. Among the 19 bioclimatic variables, the five variables of annual mean temperature (Bio 1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (Bio 4), min temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio 9) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio 19) were selected as the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of F. occidentalis. In summary, temperature and precipitation are vital factors for the study of the species’ distribution, and this study aims to provide new perspectives for the control of this pest in China.

Potential impact of climatic factors on the distribution of Graphium sarpedon in China

“…To classify the levels of distribution values and the corresponding distribution ranges, a “reclassification” function was used, based on the probability classification methods suggested in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The specific criteria for classification were as follows: p < .05 (non‐suitable area); 0.05 ≤ p < .33 (low suitable area); 0.33 ≤ p < .66 (medium suitable area); and p ≥ .66 (highly suitable area) (Wang et al., 2023 ). White, blue, orange, and red colors indicate unsuitable areas, low suitable areas, medium suitable areas, and high suitable areas, respectively.…”

“…(medium suitable area); and p ≥ .66 (highly suitable area) (Wang et al, 2023). White, blue, orange, and red colors indicate unsuitable areas, low suitable areas, medium suitable areas, and high suitable areas, respectively.…”

Climate Change and Insects

“…The intention is to include various species from diverse orders in order to demonstrate the impact of climate change on a wide diversity of insects. Therefore, this Special Issue deals with insect species from Coleoptera [ 6 ], Diptera [ 7 ], Hymenoptera [ 8 , 9 ], Lepidoptera [ 10 , 11 , 12 ], Odonata [ 13 ], and Thysanoptera [ 14 ]. The regions covered by the articles range from local (e.g., southeastern Sweden) to larger geographical areas (e.g., the Middle East) and the global scale.…”

“…The articles published here can be separated into two categories, dealing with the effects of CC on (a) insects’ life cycle and (b) potential geographical distribution patterns, including insights into the population dynamics of insects. It must be underlined that some articles discuss the economic impacts of CC on insect distribution, especially under plant protection aspects [ 14 ] and—quite specifically—in apiculture [ 10 ]. Aspects of species conservation are also addressed in at least three articles [ 6 , 7 , 13 ], as well as the energetic costs for species development cycles [ 8 ].…”

“…Most papers in this Special Issue encompass two types of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), mostly RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and/or RCP8.5. Only the articles by Gao et al [ 9 ] and Wang et al [ 14 ] included three emission scenarios to cover a broad range of possible future climate realizations. Concerning the timespans covered by the projections, the authors focus on two different future timespans: the near future (2041–2060) and the far future (2071–2100).…”