Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Crimean Juniper

Abstract

Aim of study: The main purpose of the present study is to model present and future potential distribution areas of the Crimean juniper (Juniperus excelsa M. BIEB.) under climate change. Area of study: The study was carried out in the Lakes District that covers Burdur, Isparta and Antalya provinces in the west of the Mediterranean region. Material and methods: During the study, the inventory data of 40 productive juniper stands in the region were collected. The future projections for the study area were made for the year 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and 19 bioclimatic predictors from HadGEM2-ES. Modeling process was performed by using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method. Main results: The AUC value of the model was determined as 0.966 ± 0.028. The model identified that Precipitation of Driest Month, Temperature Seasonality, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Diurnal Range were the major variables influencing the current and future distributions of the species. According to the models, there will be a dramatic decrease in the potential distribution of the Crimean juniper. Consequently, the results from all these studies will be able to create an effective base for the biodiversity and ecosystem planning studies to be realized according to the climate change scenarios. Highlights: Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of plant species in the future is an important topic in ecological researches. Climate change scenarios are the most preferred parameters to remove this uncertainty. It is predicted that the Crimean juniper will be affected by climate change and its distribution will decrease dramatically.

What happens to species at the rear‐edge of their distribution in arid regions? The case of Juniperus thurifera L. in the Aurès Mountains (Algeria)

“…This ability to survive in such conditions has been observed in another species of the genus Juniperus ( J. excelsa ) growing in the eastern part of the Mediterranean basin (Ahmed et al, 2006; Sarangzai et al, 2012) where it occupies the same elevation level as J. thurifera (Barbero et al, 1994; Ozenda, 1975). In terms of environmental factors, the distribution of J. excelsa is determined by the same parameters as those affecting thuriferous juniper (Fatemi et al, 2018; Özdemir et al, 2020). This corroborates previous findings suggesting that the two species are closely connected and vicarious (Barbero et al, 1994).…”

Role of climate change on Oriental spruce (Picea orientalis L.): Modeling and mapping

“…Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software, which is one of the methods that works only with presence data, provides more accurate and reliable results than modeling methods that work with present-absent data (Elith et al 2011). In addition, MaxEnt software helps take conservation measures by analyzing continuous and categorical data affecting plant species distribution and simulating changing climate conditions for future years (Phillips and Dudík 2008;Kıraç and Mert 2019;Suel 2019;Özdemir et al 2020). Based on its accuracy and reliability, the MaxEnt method is frequently preferred in modeling the potential distribution of plant species.…”

İklim Değişim Senaryolarına Göre ‘Juniperus excelsa’ Türünün Günümüz ve Gelecekteki Yayılış Alanlarının GARP Programında Tahmini

“…İklimin doğal süreci nedeniyle bazı değişiklikler olması beklense de, son yıllarda antropojenik etkilerin giderek artması, söz konusu değişikliği doğal sürecinden uzaklaştırmıştır. (Johns vd., 2003;Özdemir, Gülsoy, & Ahmet, 2020) Günümüzde, Türkiye'de çeşitli ve endemik biyoçeşitliliği, bitki örtüsü özelliği ve farklı iklim bölgeleri nedeniyle küresel ısınmanın etkileri önemli ölçüde görülebilmektedir. (Dağtekin, 2018;Şekercioğlu vd., 2011).Bu nedenle, Türkiye genelinde iklim değişikliğinin sonuçlarını anlamak ve biyolojik çeşitlilik üzerindeki olası sonuçlarını tahmin etmeye çalışmak son derecede önemlidir.…”