Predicting the Emergence of Innovations from Technological Convergence: Lessons from the Twentieth Century

Schnaars, Steven P.; Thomas, Gloria P.; Irmak, Caglar

doi:10.1177/0276146708314588

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Convergence has been discussed mainly in connection with industries that are to a high degree science-and technology-driven, even though it has been shaping industries throughout history (Schnaars et al, 2008). In information technology, as well as chemistry and their neighboring industries, pivotal developments within the last few decades have led to shortened lifecycles of innovations and up to two-digit R&D spending.…”

Section: Industry Convergencementioning

confidence: 99%

Employing STN Anavist to Forecast Converging Industries

Curran

Leker

2009

Int. J. Innov. Mgt.

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Converging industries are characterized by the blurring of boundaries between technologies, markets and industry sectors. As such they can enable firms to access new markets or threaten them with an array of new competitors and a lack of knowledge. This makes an early identification of convergence trends highly important. In the present paper we focus on the application of a frequency-based analysis and visualization software (STN AnaVist) for the forecasting of converging industries. Scrutinizing 3,836 patent and scientific publication references on phytosterols in the areas of nutraceuticals and cosmeceuticals, we employ research landscape, co-authorship and International Patent Classification (IPC) co-classification analyses. The results demonstrate partial convergence between the pharmaceutical, the chemical, the nutrition and the cosmetics industries and the suitability of the employed approach. According to this study, scientific as well as technology convergence have taken place in this segment, with a time-lag of roughly 25 years.

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Section: Industry Convergencementioning

confidence: 99%

Employing STN Anavist to Forecast Converging Industries

Curran

Leker

2009

Int. J. Innov. Mgt.

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“…Convergence has been discussed mainly in connection with industries that are to a high degree science and technology driven, even though it has been shaping industries throughout history [61]. In both fields, information technology as well as chemistry and their neighbouring industries, pivotal developments within the last few decades have led to shortened lifecycles of often radical innovations and to up to two-digit R&D spending.…”

Section: B Idealized Time Series Of Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the light of many failed convergence predictions on the one hand and their high strategic importance on the other hand, a clear demand for means to anticipate convergence has been identified [61]. Especially with recent developments in research-intensive industries like the chemical industry and in light of an exponentially growing amount of data, a closer look on effective tools for harvesting the world's knowledge wealth appears to be necessary.…”

Section: B St1 ® Anavist Tmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seeing the next iphone coming your way: How to anticipate converging industries

Curran

Leker

2009

PICMET '09 - 2009 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering &Amp; Technology

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The blurring of boundaries between hitherto distinct scientific disciplines, technologies or markets is a common and powerful phenomenon. Traditionally, it has been discussed in respect to telecommunications, information technologies and electronics. Subjects of this convergence often change what and where customers buy, with Apple's renowned iPhone being one current example for customers' tendency towards products with multiple benefits. More recently also the chemical and its related industries find themselves affected by a larger convergence process. Concentrating on developments at the outposts of the chemical industry, we discuss indications of convergence with an example from the area of 1utraceuticals and Cosmeceuticals. Furthermore, we present and discuss a multiple indicator concept for monitoring convergence in an R&D-intensive field on the basis of publicly available data. We analyze 7,455 scientific and patent references on phytosterols with the aid of SciFinder Scholar and 3,836 documents employing ST1 AnaVist. Our results show clear indications for convergence and a proof of principle for our monitoring concept. A closer look at convergence and effective tools for spotting weak signals appears to be necessary. Particularly for practitioners, the opportunity to get a head start on their current and future competitors is of high strategic importance.

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“…Most scholars have focused on the media, information technology or electronics industry to study industrial convergence, primarily because it relates to high-level industries that are centered on science and technology (Schnaars et al, 2008).…”

Section: Industry Convergencementioning

confidence: 99%

Weak signal detecting of industry convergence using information of products and services of global listed companies - focusing on growth engine industry in South Korea –

Kwon

Park

Youngjoo

et al. 2018

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

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The [World Economic Forum 2016, https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economicforum-annual-meeting-2016. Accessed 5 Aug 2017] predicted that the world would face the Fourth Industrial Revolution which means innovative changes through convergence of cutting-edge information and communications technologies (ICTs) such as artificial intelligence, IoT, big data and cloud computing with conventional industries. It was forecasted that such innovation would take place across all industries and services. In particular, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has paid attention to changes in conventional traditional industries. The weak signal analysis is a method which can detect the sign of future changes at an early stage. A weak signal is defined as an advanced indicator in such changes. Therefore, its search and monitoring can be an early warning on threat and great opportunity to be prepared. To overcome the limitation of future prediction which is mostly dependent upon an expert group's intuitive judgment, this study attempted to investigate the weak signal of convergence among industries, using knowledge structure based approaches. As new products and services can lead to convergence between industries, research data has gathered information on the products and services of global listed companies which have been established for the past 11 years. For comparative analysis, they were grouped every 5 years, and product and service trends were compared. And we detected weak signals of convergence with different industries and noticed the changes of existing industries. Historically, the convergence of industries is mainly discussed in relation to science and technology-led industries, so the industrial field that has been studied has chosen Korea's growth engine industries, a high-tech science and technology industries.

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Predicting the Emergence of Innovations from Technological Convergence: Lessons from the Twentieth Century

Cited by 18 publications

References 13 publications

Employing STN Anavist to Forecast Converging Industries

Employing STN Anavist to Forecast Converging Industries

Seeing the next iphone coming your way: How to anticipate converging industries

Weak signal detecting of industry convergence using information of products and services of global listed companies - focusing on growth engine industry in South Korea –

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