Predicting the potential distribution of pine wilt disease in China under climate change

Ouyang, Xianheng; Chen, Anliang; Lin, Haiping

doi:10.22541/au.164848876.64808648/v1

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…ROC, or the receiver operating characteristic curve's area under the curve (AUC), is a model accuracy metric that contrasts accurate and inaccurate predictions over a range of thresholds [72]. The value range for AUC is from 0 to 1, indicating that the model's prediction result is more accurate the closer the AUC value is to 1 [73,74]. A large AUC value indicates a better model performance [72].…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Approach to Map the Impact of Climate Change on the Distributions of Crataegus azarolus and Crataegus monogyna in Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Radha

Khwarahm

2022

Sustainability

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The hawthorns Crataegus azarolus L. and Crataegus monogyna Jacq are two ecologically and medicinally important endemic tree species that occur only in forests of oak in the mountain ranges of the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI). These species have been degrading across the mountain ranges at an alarming pace due to climate-related factors (e.g., wildfire events and drought) and anthropogenic drivers. Nevertheless, there is a gap in understanding their distributions today and in the future under a changing climate in Iraq. To address the species’ knowledge gap and thus establish a baseline for a future management and conservation strategy, this study used field observation records, species distribution modeling integrated with GIS techniques, and relevant environmental predictors to (i) estimate the species’ potential distributions and map their current known distributions across unsurveyed areas; (ii) model the species’ possible response under several scenarios for a weather change in the future; (iii) map the species’ overlap ranges and the direction of the distributions. Results suggest that under two global climatic models (GCMs), BCC-CSM2-MR and CNRM-CM6-1, the overall habitat expansion magnitude for the two species would be less than the overall habitat reduction magnitude. For C. azarolus, the habitat range would contract by 3714.64 km2 (7.20%) and 3550.47 km2 (6.89%), whereas it would expand by 2415.90 km2 (4.68%) and 1627.76 km2 (3.16%) for the GCMs, respectively. Modeling also demonstrated a similar pattern for C. monogyna. The species overlap by 7626.53 km2 (14.80%) and 7351.45 km2 (14.27%) for the two GCMs. The two species’ habitat ranges would contract significantly due to the changing climate. The direction of the species’ potential distribution would be mostly toward the KRI’s east and southeast mountain forests. Our results, for the first time, provide new data on the species’ present and future distributions and outline the advantages of distribution modeling combined with geospatial techniques in areas where species data are limited, such as Iraq.

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Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Approach to Map the Impact of Climate Change on the Distributions of Crataegus azarolus and Crataegus monogyna in Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Radha

Khwarahm

2022

Sustainability

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Habitat Suitability of Pine Wilt Disease in Northeast China under Climate Change Scenario

Wang,

Deng,

Yan

et al. 2023

Forests

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Pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is one of the most severe forest diseases worldwide. PWD causes devastating disasters to Chinese pine trees, seriously threatening forestry production and the forest ecological environment, and causes economic losses of over ten billion yuan per year to China. Previous studies have shown that the spread of PWD is closely related to climate factors. Today, PWD is spreading rapidly owing to abnormal climate changes. In order to provide a reference for controlling the spread of PWD in China, in this study, we accurately assessed the risk of the continued spread of PWD in Northeast China; a correlative species distribution model (MaxEnt) (RM = 1, AUC = 0.9904) was used to evaluate China’s climate suitability for PWD. The effects of climate factors on the spread of PWD in Northeast China were studied using Liaoning Province as an example by analyzing the relationship between the changes in average precipitation, average temperature, average relative humidity, average vapor pressure deficit, average wind speed, average sunshine duration and the area of the PWD epidemic over the past five years. These results suggest that with the change in climate, the areas suitable for PWD have expanded, and certain previously unsuitable areas for its distribution have become suitable. Temperature and precipitation were found to play key roles in the occurrence and damage of PWD, and hot and arid conditions favored the spread of PWD. It is recommended that for areas within the suitable range of PWD but not yet epidemic areas, quarantine should be strengthened to prevent the further spread of PWD. In addition, special attention should be paid to epidemic areas with high temperatures and arid while the monitoring of PWD should be strengthened to achieve the early detection and timely treatment of infected epidemic trees. Our results indicate that PWD undoubtedly poses a major threat to Northeast Chinese pine species if climate change proceeds as projected. In the future, more attention should be paid to monitoring the northward spread of PWD, and further studies should consider meteorological data forecasts, which could facilitate timely control measures.

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Potential Distribution and Identification of Critical Areas for the Preservation and Recovery of Three Species of Cinchona L. (Rubiaceae) in Northeastern Peru

Coronel-Castro,

Meza-Mori,

Torres

et al. 2024

Forests

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The genus Cinchona L. has important medicinal, cultural, and economic value and is the emblematic tree of Peru. The genus is mainly found in the cloud forests of the Andes. However, the expansion of agriculture and livestock farming in the department of Amazonas is degrading these ecosystems and has reduced the size of the genus’s populations. In this work, we model the potential distribution under current conditions of three Cinchona species (C. capuli L. Anderson, C. macrocalyx Pav. Ex DC., and C. pubescens Vahl.) to identify areas with a high likelihood of species presence and their key conservation and reforestation zones. We fitted a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model using nineteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic variables, nine edaphic variables, and solar radiation. Under current conditions, the potential distribution of C. capuli covers 17.22% (7243.98 km2); C. macrocalyx, 29.11% (12,238.91 km2); and C. pubescens, 22.94% (9647.63 km2) of the study area, which was mostly located in central and southern Amazonas. Only 24.29% (25.51% of C. capuli, 21.02% of C. macrocalyx, and 26.35% of C. pubescens) of the potential distributions are within protected areas, while 10,987.22 km2 of the surface area of the department of Amazonas is degraded, of which 29.80% covers the area of probable occurrence of C. capuli, 38.72% of C. macrocalyx, and 34.82% of C. pubescens. Consequently, it is necessary to promote additional conservation strategies for Cinchona, including the establishment of new protected areas and the recovery of degraded habitats, in order to protect this species.

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Predicting the potential distribution of pine wilt disease in China under climate change

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

An Integrated Approach to Map the Impact of Climate Change on the Distributions of Crataegus azarolus and Crataegus monogyna in Kurdistan Region, Iraq

An Integrated Approach to Map the Impact of Climate Change on the Distributions of Crataegus azarolus and Crataegus monogyna in Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Habitat Suitability of Pine Wilt Disease in Northeast China under Climate Change Scenario

Potential Distribution and Identification of Critical Areas for the Preservation and Recovery of Three Species of Cinchona L. (Rubiaceae) in Northeastern Peru

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