Predicting the Potential Impact of Emergency on Global Grain Security: A Case of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

Global emergencies have a profound impact on exacerbating food insecurity, and the protracted Russia–Ukraine conflict has emerged as a significant driver of a global food crisis. Accurately quantifying the impact of this conflict is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. The multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation approach was used to construct a grain security composite index (GSCI). Moreover, econometric model was used to predict the potential impacts of the conflict on global grain security in 2030 under two scenarios: with and without the “Russia-Ukraine conflict”. The results conclude that global food prices reached unprecedented levels as a consequence of the conflict, leading to notable fluctuations in food prices, especially with a significant surge in wheat prices. The conflict had a negative impact on global grain security, resulting in a decline in grain security from 0.538 to 0.419. Predictions indicate that the influence of the conflict on global grain security will be substantially greater compared to the scenario without the conflict in 2023–2030, ranging from 0.033 to 0.13. Furthermore, grain security will first decrease and then increase under the sustained consequences of the conflict. The achievement of the 2030 sustainable development goals will encounter significant challenges in light of these circumstances.

Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security

“…According to Yarmak [41], the Russian invasion of Ukraine will significantly violate global food security, as the number of people who do not have access to a minimum set of calories may increase and reach even 1 billion. The threat to global food security resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was also discussed by Grant et al [22], Lin et al [11], Xu et al [23], and Rabbi et al [31]. Considering that fact, we will focus on the Ukraine case when analyzing the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the food supply and prices.…”

“…It can be noted that this problem has affected not only low-income countries but also developed ones. Deterioration of food security in developing countries, including those located in Asia and Africa regions, is a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has been previously discussed, e.g., by Arndt et al [33], Grant et al [22], Lin et al [11], and Xu et al [23]. Rabbi et al [31] addressed this issue based on the developed European countries.…”

“…The literature on the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on trade volumes, food prices, or food security is not extensive and refers to food availability rather than economic access to food. Grant et al [22], Lin et al [11], and Xu et al [23] drew attention to the threatened food security worldwide, especially for countries heavily dependent on wheat imports from Ukraine. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, including Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen, are among them [16].…”

From acute food insecurity to famine: how the 2023/2024 war on Gaza has dramatically set back sustainable development goal 2 to end hunger

“…Food insecurity is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity today, especially with the growing outbreak of pandemics and armed conflicts, and wars, which are widely recognised as the main contributors to food insecurity in various parts of the world. Particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been extensively explored in recent studies, showing that these two extraordinary crises have been the most important drivers of food insecurity globally (Béné et al, 2021;Jagtap et al, 2022;Barakat et al, 2023;Mhlanga and Ndhlovu, 2023;Xu et al, 2023).…”

Numerical Study of Low-Temperature Ventilation Drying in a Wheat Grain Silo Considering Non-Uniform Porosity Distribution

“…The safe storage of wheat is crucial for national security. This requirement has become more important with the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict [2,3]. However, when the moisture content of wheat is above the safe level of 14% during storage, the number of pests and mold will sharply increase.…”