Predicting the Results of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election with Google Trends

Abstract

In electoral competitions, voter behavior research is conducted to develop effective campaign strategies, but survey methods tend to be expensive. By contrast, in the internet era where political campaigns evolve by using digital data and channels, Google Trends offers free services that display search interest indexes for certain keywords and topics measured through search volumes on Google search engines over a period of time and certain areas. Thus, Google Trends could be a tool that increases the efficiency of voter behavior research. By using the election real count data released by the General Election Commission on May 21, 2019, this study conducted an accuracy and precision analysis of the Google Trends topic query index that represented presidential candidate number 01 and number 02 in predicting the real count of the two candidates' votes. The analysis indicated that using Google Trends as a tool to predict the results of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election produced imprecise results. However, Google Trends could better predict election outcomes by adding features for sentiment analysis and a more representative understanding of users' search activity.

Do Internet search patterns predict election results? An analysis of the 2022 presidential election in Colombia using a reproducible descriptive analytics framework

“…This study shows that the use of data from Google Trends constitutes a potential means for carrying out predictions for presidential elections, which is consistent with the findings reported by [25][26]. At the same time, it is partially consistent with those found by [27]. They conclude that the data provided by such a tool are still far from providing predictions that replace the surveys; however, they suggest that such data can complement polls.…”

“…They conclude that the method used manages to predict the winning candidate of the observed elections. [27] conduct a similar study in the context of a presidential election in Indonesia, using ratios of difference between candidates, calculated from search data over the eight months before the election. They report that although the overall winner was predicted, the estimates achieved little success in the case of individual provinces.…”

Mediatisasi Politik dan Perilaku Pemilih: Penggunaan Google Trend Sebagai Metode Alternatif Memprediksi Kemenangan Kandidat

“…Dalam studi perilaku pemilih khususnya untuk mengetahui tingkat popularitas, akseptabilitas dan elektabilitas dari kandidat yang bertarung di pemilihan umum akan menggunakan metode survei, tetapi dalam studi yang dikembangkan oleh Harkan & Eriyanto digunakan satu metode baru yakni prediksi hasil pemilihan presiden 2019 di Indonesia menggunakan Google Trend serta menganalisis tingkat akurasi, presisi dan peluangnya Mediatisasi Politik dan Perilaku Pemilih... dibandingkan dengan hasil akhir pemilihan presiden 2019, meskipun dalam studi Harkan & Eriyanto yang dipublikasikan di tahun 2021 menemukan bahwa Google Trend kurang tepat dalam memprediksi hasil akhir dari pemilihan presiden tetapi terdapat temuan menarik bahwa Google Trend berhasil memprediksi dengan tepat pemenang pemilihan Presiden di 13 provinsi (Harkan & Eriyanto, 2021). Artinya di tingkat provinsi ada peluang bahwa Google Trend dapat digunakan sebagai indikator awal dalam memprediksi kemenangan kandidat.…”

“…Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah membandingkan data peringkat popularitas calon kepala daerah di Google Trend dengan hasil akhir saat pemungutan suara, adapun 9 provinsi yang akan diteliti adalah 9 provinsi yang melaksanakan pilkada serentak 2020 antara lain Provinsi Bengkulu, Provinsi Jambi, Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan, Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah, Provinsi Kalimantan Utara, Provinsi Kepulauan Riau, Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah, Provinsi Sulawesi Utara, Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Adapun metode yang digunakan akan mereplikasi metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian Harkan & Eriyanto yang dipublikasikan di tahun 2021, yakni mencari kata kunci calon kepala daerah di Google Trend dan mengambil data peringkat popularitasnya kemudian membandingkan dengan hasil pilkada resmi dari Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU) (Harkan & Eriyanto, 2021). Adapun rentang waktu yakni dari masa kampanye dimulai hingga hari pemungutan suara yakni 26 September -9 Desember 2020.…”