Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping

Wang, Jia-Long; Zong, Weiguo; Le, G. M.; Zhao, Hai-Juan; Tang, Yun-Qiu; Zhang, Yang

doi:10.1088/1674-4527/9/2/002

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The minimum smoothed monthly mean sunspot number is about 1.7 for cycle 24, thus, R M should be 88.2 ± 32.0 for cycle 24. Similar conclusions were obtained using other statistical methods (Du, 2006;Du and Du, 2006;Wang, 2009;Wang et al, 2009). (1982) noted that geomagnetic activity has two different sources: one due to solar activity that follows the sunspot cycle and another due to recurrent high speed solar wind streams that peak during the decline of each cycle.…”

Section: Statistical Methods Based On Sunspot Cycle Characteristicssupporting

confidence: 86%

A brief review on the presentation of cycle 24, the first integrated solar cycle in the new millennium

Wen

et al. 2011

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. The status of the extended solar activity minimum, since the second half of 2007, has been briefly instructed to the solar-terrestrial community. Cycle 24 has the most spotless days since cycle 16, and probably even since the modern cycles, latitudes of high-latitude (>35 • ) sunspots belonging to a new cycle around the minimum time of the cycle are statistically the lowest at present, compared with those of cycle 12 onwards, and there is only one or no sunspots in a month appearing at high latitudes (>20 • ) for 58 months (from November 2003 to September 2008), which is observed for the first time since cycle 12 onwards. The solar wind velocity and pressure, 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the polar solar magnetic field, solar total irradiance, and so on reach their minima during the 23-24 cycle minimum time. In order to explain the present extreme low activity, we introduced here one possible mechanism using helio-seismology observations. Viewing, from the long-term running of the time scales of both the Gleissberg period and millenniums, the extended solar activity minimum becomes logical. According to the present observations, the cycle 24 should start in November 2008. Solar activity is predicted at being about 30% lower in cycle 24 than in cycle 23, synthesizing the typical predictions of solar activity, including those given by NASA and NOAA. The 24th solar cycle is sluggishly coming and it should be an opportune moment for studying solar physics and solar-terrestrial physics.

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Section: Statistical Methods Based On Sunspot Cycle Characteristicssupporting

confidence: 86%

A brief review on the presentation of cycle 24, the first integrated solar cycle in the new millennium

Wen

et al. 2011

Ann. Geophys.

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“…The solar cycle distribution of outstanding Sun-Earth connection events can help us to make various decisions, such as selecting a time window to launch satellites to detect enough outstanding Sun-Earth connection events occurring in a strong or weak solar cycle, as mentioned by Le et al (2012). The amplitude of solar cycle 24 predicted by researchers (Ajabshirizadeh et al 2011;Chumak & Matveychuk 2010;Du & Wang 2010;Jiang et al 2007;Wang et al 2009) is about 90 or even lower. A peak in the SMMSNs for solar cycle 24 is 66.9 (http://sidc.oma.be), which occurred in Feb. 2012.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms

Cai

Wang

et al. 2013

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ −100 nT), including intense storms at the level of −200 nT< Dst ≤ −100 nT, great storms at −300 nT< Dst ≤ −200 nT, and super storms at Dst ≤ −300 nT, which occurred during the period of 1957-2006, based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Statistics show that the majority (82%) of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst ≤ −100 nT that occurred in the study period were intense geomagnetic storms, with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms. It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle, and about 73% in the descending one. Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms, 79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak, or in the three years after it. The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred, during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years after it, is investigated. Finally, the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.

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“…The amplitudes of solar cycle 24 predicted by researcher are quite dispersed (Obridko and Shelting 2008;Pesnell 2008;Bhatt et al 2009;Ajabshirizadeh 2011;Chumak and Matveychuk 2010;Dabas and Sharma 2010;Du and Wang 2010;Kane 2010;Wang et al, 2002Wang et al, , 2008Wang et al, , 2009). However, a dynamo model tends to predict that the amplitude of solar cycle 24 is about 90 or even at less than 90 (Jiang et al 2007).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Solar cycle distribution of great geomagnetic storms

Cai

Wang

et al. 2011

Astrophys Space Sci

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The distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ −200 nT) and super geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ −300 nT) across the solar cycles (19-23) are investigated. The results show that 73.2% of the great geomagnetic storms took place in the descending phase of the solar cycles. 72.7% of super geomagnetic storms occurred in the descending phase of the solar cycles. About 83% of the great geomagnetic storms appeared during the period from the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak time. 90.9% of the super geomagnetic storms appeared between the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak. When a solar cycle is very strong, the phenomenon that great geomagnetic storms concentrated during the period from the two years before the solar cycle peak time to the three years after the solar cycle peak time is very prominent. The launch time

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Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping

Cited by 19 publications

References 14 publications

A brief review on the presentation of cycle 24, the first integrated solar cycle in the new millennium

A brief review on the presentation of cycle 24, the first integrated solar cycle in the new millennium

Solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms

Solar cycle distribution of great geomagnetic storms

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