Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change

Abstract

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

The Impact of Lidar Elevation Uncertainty on Mapping Intertidal Habitats on Barrier Islands

“…On barrier islands, supratidal areas include habitats such as beach, dune, and barrier flat (meadow, nonvegetated barrier flat, and forest). Monitoring these supratidal areas is equally important to resource managers [4] because these areas provide important habitat for resident and migratory shorebirds [46], neotropical migrants [47], and sea turtles [48]. Besides providing habitat for wildlife, dunes deliver erosion control for shorelines [49].…”

Complexity of bioindicator selection for ecological, human, and cultural health: Chinook salmon and red knot as case studies

“…Red knots have declined precipitously (Morrison et al 2006) since the 1980s. The threats to shorebird populations include habitat loss, human disturbance, commercial harvesting of shorebird food, hunting and egging, pollution, and long-term effects from climate change and sea level rise (Goss-Custard et al 2000; Glbraith et al 2014). While harvesting of birds may not be a problem in much of the developed world, large numbers of shorebirds are still harvested in some places, such as South America and Africa.…”

“…While harvesting of birds may not be a problem in much of the developed world, large numbers of shorebirds are still harvested in some places, such as South America and Africa. Climate change and sea level rise pose a long-term threat to shorebirds because of the potential to render breeding, migration stopover sites, and overwintering habitats unsuitable (Galbraith et al 2002, 2014). Red knots have become symbolic of the problems shorebirds face throughout the world and have been proposed for listing as a threatened species by the USFWS.…”

Smartphone-Based Distributed Data Collection Enables Rapid Assessment of Shorebird Habitat Suitability

“…Observations of species, their local context, and population dynamics are necessary to understand and predict changes in habitat availability and utilization [3]. Many shorebird species, including the piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ), utilize habitats found on coastal beaches.…”