Prediction of Daily Ambient Temperature and Its Hourly Estimation Using Artificial Neural Networks in Urban Allotment Gardens and in an Urban Park in Valladolid, Castilla y León, Spain.

Abstract

Cities exemplify the evolving world with changing demographics and climates. Urban green spaces play a crucial role in improving the quality of life of people through their potential to mitigate temperatures. Therefore, comprehending their impact is of para-mount interest. Given the challenges in obtaining temperature data from urban locations, this study develops Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict daily and hourly temperatures in Valladolid, Spain, with a particular focus on urban allotment gardens and a forested urban park. ANNs were built and evaluated from various combinations of inputs (X), hidden neurons (Y) and outputs (Z) under the practical rule of "making net-works simple, to obtain better results". The best performing model was 6-Y-1 ANN archi-tecture with an impressive result of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.42°C in the urban garden called Valle de Arán. However, other five ANN architectures were also tested (7-Y-5; 6-Y-5; 7-Y-1; 3-Y-Z and 2-Y-1). ANNs dedicated to urban temperature analysis hold immense potential for urban planning and research, aiding in under-standing the urban climate, forecasting future temperatures, identifying temperature mitigation strategies and even for managing urban crops