Prediction of lightning activity using WRF-ELEC model: Impact of initial and boundary conditions

Gharaylou, Maryam; Farahani, Majid M.; Mahmoudian, A.; Hosseini, Morteza

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105438

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The choices for the atmospheric MP, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and cumulus parameterization scheme are based on 14 papers on the use of WRF or NU‐WRF to model convection (Blake et al., 2017; Comin et al., 2018; Dawn & Satyanarayana, 2020; Fierro et al., 2013; Gharaylou et al., 2020; Gilliland & Rowe, 2007; Iguchi et al., 2017; Lang et al., 2014; Madala et al., 2014; Santanello et al., 2013; W. K. Tao et al., 2016; Z. Tao et al., 2020; Wong et al., 2013; Yu et al., 2011). The literature study indicated that the highest sensitivity and uncertainty of the atmospheric simulations was related to the choice of the MP scheme.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The choices for the atmospheric MP, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and cumulus parameterization scheme are based on 14 papers on the use of WRF or NU-WRF to model convection (Blake et al, 2017;Comin et al, 2018;Dawn & Satyanarayana, 2020;Fierro et al, 2013;Gharaylou et al, 2020;Gilliland & Rowe, 2007;Iguchi et al, 2017;Lang et al, 2014;Madala et al, 2014;Santanello et al, 2013;W. K. Tao et al, 2016;Z.…”

Section: Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land‐Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Mortelmans

Bechtold

Brisson³

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The boreal zone consists of a mosaic of different land cover types, mainly forests and peatlands, both storing large amounts of carbon (Scharlemann et al., 2014;Turetsky et al., 2015). One of the natural features shaping the boreal landscape is wildfire (Bowman et al., 2009). Several studies indicate that lightning is the major source of ignition of wildfires in the boreal zone (Turetsky et al., 2015). It is proposed that lightning may increase due to global warming (Y.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land‐Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Mortelmans

Bechtold

Brisson³

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Compared with the evaluation conducted by Dafis et al [29] and Gharaylou et al [63], the resolution of the initial field and simulation used in this study is low, but the current results are of reference value for improving the discharge scheme. If the initial field is improved and the resolution is increased, it is believed that the ability to predict the lightning in WRF-Electric will be significantly improved.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Evaluation of Lightning Prediction by an Electrification and Discharge Model in Long-Term Forecasting Experiments

Chen²,

Yao

2022

Advances in Meteorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Over nearly three rainy seasons of lightning activity in North China, numerical prediction experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with electrification and discharge schemes (WRF-Electric). The numerical forecast results were evaluated using the neighborhood-based equitable threat score (ETS) and fraction skill score (FSS) verification methods based on nationwide observational lightning data. An algorithm was used to generate the coverage of the total flash (intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) by fitting the cloud-to-ground flash data. The numerical results showed that the region of lightning activity could be well predicted by the mesoscale WRF-Electric model, particularly during a 6–12-hour forecasting period. The average ETS score of the 6–12-hour forecasting period was 0.34 for a 20 km neighborhood radius. The predictive skill of the model varied not only monthly but also diurnally. The model showed better forecasting skills during the main rainy season (June–July–August) and at 14 : 00–20 : 00 local time. The predictability of the model was enhanced with increasing thunderstorm scale. On the other hand, the coverage of predicted lightning activity was relatively concentrated, and the lightning flash density was higher than the observations. The main discrepancies in the model prediction were related to the design of the discharge parameterization. Thus, in discharge parameterization, the initial threshold for lightning should be modified according to the model resolution, while the magnitude of the neutralization charge in a single discharge should be referenced to the observational results.

show abstract

“…The choices for the atmospheric MP, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and cumulus parameterization scheme are based on 13 papers on the use of WRF or NU-WRF to model convection (Blake et al, 2017;Fierro et al, 2013;Gharaylou et al, 2020;Iguchi et al, 2017;Madala et al, 2014;Santanello et al, 2013;W. K. Tao et al, 2016;Z.…”

Section: Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

Lightning over the Boreal Zone: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices

Mortelmans

Bechtold

Brisson

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Prediction of lightning activity using WRF-ELEC model: Impact of initial and boundary conditions

Cited by 17 publications

References 39 publications

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land‐Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land‐Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Evaluation of Lightning Prediction by an Electrification and Discharge Model in Long-Term Forecasting Experiments

Lightning over the Boreal Zone: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About