Based on material constitutive models and the classic Koistinen–Marburger (KM) kinetics model, a new dilatometric analysis model was developed to extract the kinetics curve of martensitic transformation under a temperature gradient and stress from the measured dilatometric data and to determine the transformation parameters. The proposed dilatometric analysis model is generally for athermal martensitic transformation, relying only on the average atom volume of martensite and austenite. Furthermore, through theoretical calculations, the proposed model also provided a more accurate method for obtaining the martensite start temperature, which is different from the traditional method. According to the dilatometric analysis results for the martensitic transformation of a type of high-strength low-alloy steel, and the thermodynamic basis of martensitic transformation, a refined kinetics model was developed that successfully predicted the martensitic transformation kinetics curves under different stresses, taking into account the physical significance of the transformation parameter α and the driving force of stress for martensitic transformation.