Prediction of reservoir pressure and study of its behavior in the development of oil fields based on the construction of multilevel multidimensional probabilistic-statistical models

Abstract

Determination of the current reservoir pressure in oil production wells selection zones is an urgent task of field development monitoring. The main method for its determination is hydrodynamic studies under unsteady conditions. At the same time, the process of restoring bottomhole pressure to the value of reservoir pressure often lasts a significant period of time, which leads to long downtime of the fund and significant shortfalls in oil production. In addition, it seems rather difficult to compare reservoir pressures with each other in the wells due to the different timing of the studies, since it is impossible to simultaneously stop the entire fund for measuring the reservoir pressure in the field. The article proposes a new method for determining the current reservoir pressure in the extraction zones, based on the construction of multidimensional mathematical models based on the data of geological and technological development indicators. As the initial data, the values of reservoir pressure, determined during processing of the materials of hydrodynamic studies of wells, as well as a set of geological and technological indicators, probably affecting its value, were used (initial reservoir pressure for each well, the duration of its operation at the time of study, liquid rate, bottomhole pressure, the initial permeability and the current collector in the drainage area, GOR accumulated values oil, and liquid water, and skin factor). In the course of the research, several variants of statistical modeling were used, in the process of which the regularities of the reservoir pressure behavior during the development of reserves were established, individual for the object of development. The obtained models are characterized by a high degree of reliability and make it possible to determine the desired value with an error of no more than 1.0 MPa.

Application of GMDH model to predict pore pressure

“…Many researchers have recently been able to forecast the value of PP and fracture pressure using artificial intelligence algorithms in order to better predict the PP and FP in subsurface reservoirs. This is certainly relevant if the model is independent of the normal velocity trend and depends on the porosity (Rabbani and Babaei, 2019;Galkin et al, 2021;Ponomareva et al, 2021;Zakharov, 2021;Martyushev et al, 2022;Ponomareva et al, 2022). In 2000, Sadiq and Nashawi (2000) used artificial intelligence methods to predict formation failure pressure, which is the last point of formation PP.…”

Experience in the Application of Hydrocarbon Optical Studies in Oil Field Development

“…Hydrocarbon field development monitoring and control allows for obtaining and interpreting information about processes occurring during the operation of oil and gas fields [5]. Thus, monitoring the formation pressure changes during the development process allows quantification of the formation of asphaltene deposits in the reservoir [11] and in the bottom-hole formation zone [12], which leads to a decrease in the flow capacity of the formation and its filtration characteristics.…”

“…Directions of oil production development are connected with development of the near edge zone of the Jurassic-Cretaceous sediment basin and increase of efficiency of Jurassic sediments development in Western Siberia [3], the development of shale complexes, such as the Domanic deposits of the Volga-Ural oil and gas bearing province [4]. The rational and efficient development of oil and gas fields is accompanied by the construction of close-to-real conditions in the digital model of reservoirs [5,6]. In turn, geological and hydrodynamic models are based on theoretical knowledge of the conditions under which hydrocarbons accumulate and migrate in oil and gas traps [7] and on the filtration of stratal fluid in the pore space [8].…”

Methods Used to Estimate Reservoir Pressure Performance: A Review

“…The most crucial parameter in effectively controlling field development strategies, which describes the reservoir energy and must be continuously investigated, is reservoir pressure (Galkin et al, 2021). Since reservoir pressure varies as fluids are produced, it should be identified by a name specific to the measurement period.…”