Prediction of survival of advanced dementia patients using the advanced dementia prognostic tool: a 2-year prospective study

Abstract

Background There is a lack of research on life expectancy estimation in advanced dementia patients. In this prospective study, we evaluated the usefulness of the advanced dementia prognostic tool (ADEPT) for estimating the 2-year survival of patients in China. Methods Patients were recruited from nursing homes and hospitals in Chongqing, China, and followed up for 2 years. The usefulness of the ADEPT score for predicting the 2-year survival rate was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results In total, 115 patients were included in the study. Of these patients, 48 died. The mean ADEPT score was 13.0. The AUROC for the prediction of the 2-year mortality rate using the ADEPT score was 0.62. The optimal threshold of ADEPT score was 11.2, which had an AUROC of 0.63, specificity of 41.8, and sensitivity of 83.3. Conclusions The ADEPT score based on a threshold of 11.2 was useful to determine the 2-year survival rate of patients with advanced dementia in Chongqing, China. The survival estimation may be used to improve the treatment of patients.