Prediction of the Amplitude of 25 Th Solar Cycle Using the Rate of Increase of Solar Activity

Abstract

A prediction of the amplitude of the 25th cycle of solar activity is proposed based on the analysis of data on 24 previous solar cycles, which relate to the statistical relationship between the rate of increase in the number of sunspots in the phase of the growth curve and the amplitude of the cycle. It turned out that the forecasting result depends on which section of the growth curve is taken as the basis for forecasting, as well as whether all 24 cycles are taken into account, or only the odd ones. The prediction result is also affected by the initial assumption about monotonicity or non-monotonicity of the growth phase. A comparison of the rates of sunspot growth in different parts of the growth phase of different cycles shows that the current cycle #25 does not show early signs of non monotonic growth similar to those observed in the 24th cycle. It was concluded that, most likely, the maximum smoothed number of sunspots in the 25th cycle W max (25) should be equal to 185 ± 18 units in the new system, which corresponds to the average power of the solar cycle, with the implementation of the Hnievyshev-Ohl rule. However, if cycle #25 will still have a non-monotonic curve of the growth phase, similar to such a curve in the previous cycle #24, then W max (25) » 130. With such parameters of this cycle, there are no signs of approaching the deep minimum of the age cycle in the middle 21st century. This does not exclude the fact that this deep age minimum can occur suddenly and sharply immediately after the 25th cycle, as was the case, for example, in the Dalton minimum.