Prediction of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) xeric limit using a regional climate model: An example from southeast Europe

Stojanović, Dejan; Kržič, Aleksandra; Matović, Bratislav; Orlović, Saša; Duputié, Anne; Djurdjević, Vladimir; Galić, Zoran; Stojnić, Srdjan

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.03.009

Cited by 47 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Each of these species have different ecological requirements and the dominance of the European beech has begun to decline in locations where the mean annual temperature exceeds 11.2 • C and the annual precipitation drops below 510 mm [23]. It is predicted that in Serbia (the European beech's most southeastern occurrence in Europe), by the end of the 21st century, approximately 90% of the current European beech forests will be outside their 20th century bioclimatic niche, and approximately 50% of European beech forests will be in a bioclimatic niche where mass European beech mortality has been recorded [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

Machar

Vlčková

Buček

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:The regional effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in the temperate climate zone of Europe can be modelled as shifts of forest vegetation zones in the landscape, northward and to higher elevations. This study applies a biogeographical model of climate conditions in the forest vegetation zones of the Central European landscape, in order to predict the impact of future climate change on the most widespread tree species in European deciduous forests-the European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The biogeographical model is supported by a suite of software applications in the GIS environment. The model outputs are defined as a set of conditions -climate scenario A1B by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for a forecast period, for a specified geographical area and with ecological conditions appropriate for the European beech, which provide regional scenarios for predicted future climatic conditions in the context of the European beech's environmental requirements. These predicted changes can be graphically visualized. The results of the model scenarios for regional climate change show that in the Czech Republic from 2070 onwards, optimal growing conditions for the European beech will only exist in some parts of those areas where it currently occurs naturally. Based on these results, it is highly recommended that the national strategy for sustainable forest management in the Czech Republic be partly re-evaluated. Thus, the presented biogeographical model of climate conditions in forest vegetation zones can be applied, not only to generate regional scenarios of climate change in the landscape, but also as a support tool for the development of a sustainable forest management strategy.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

Machar

Vlčková

Buček

et al. 2017

Forests

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“…Numerous studies have assessed the distribution of beech forests (Bolte et al, 2007;Czúcz et al, 2011;Fotelli et al, 2009;Kramer et al, 2010;Stojanović et al, 2013) at the lower limit of altitudinal distribution (i.e. xeric level) which is more difficult to determine than the upper limit, determined by temperature (Rasztovits, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…-Ellenberg Quotient: , where TW represents the temperature of the warmest month of the year, P = annual precipitations (Stojanović et al, 2013). Ellenberg (1988) has set a threshold of beech favourability for EQ values lower than 30, and at EQ values that are higher than 40, the beech disappearance occurs.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Resistance of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) From the Eastern Natural Limit of Species to Climate Change

Budeanu

Petritan

Popescu

et al. 2016

Not Bot Horti Agrobo

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In this study, different approaches were used to investigate the vulnerability of beech forests, located at the eastern limit of their natural range, to climate change. To accomplish this, six 2500 m 2 plots were sampled in four European beech forest genetic resources, located in Romania at different altitudinal levels, varying from 230 to 580 m in the Bacău hills and between 650 and 1300 m in the Curvature Carpathian (Braşov region). The analysis of trees phenotypic traits, their radial growth, and the regeneration, did not indicate a vulnerability of the sampled stands to the fluctuations of the environmental factors from the 1950-2014 period. The growth indices of all three populations of Bacău hills are negatively correlated with both June air temperature of current year and September of the previous year. The precipitation amount of September previous year positively influenced the growth indices. The radial growth of plots in Braşov region is slightly linked to the climate. The temperature during the growing season represents a limiting factor for stands that are located outside of the optimal altitudinal species distribution (600-1200 m, in Romania), especially at low altitudes. Our results indicated that a rise of the temperature accompanied by a possible reduction of the precipitations (as is predicted for the coming years) could increase the sensibility of beech forests at lower altitude.

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“…The unfavorable effects of decreasing summer precipitation can also be mitigated by a flexible adaptation as it was concluded from the results of three precipitation variables referring to the hottest months of the year (SDS, BIO16 and BIO19). In our study, Ellenberg's Quotient, the most widely used composite index in relation with climate adaptation and sensitivity (e.g., [15,16,20,22,23]), did not proved to have a powerful sensitivity indication power due to the low ratio of decay function (Table 2). This conclusion is consistent with the findings that EQ ranked 35th of 44 climatic predictors of European forest distribution [11].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Functional Response Trait Analysis Improves Climate Sensitivity Estimation in Beech Forests at a Trailing Edge

Salamon-Albert

Abaligeti

Ortmann‐Ajkai

2017

Forests

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Functional response traits influence the ability of species to colonize and thrive in a habitat and to persist under environmental challenges. Functional traits can be used to evaluate environment-related processes and phenomena. They also help to interpret distribution patterns, especially under limiting ecological conditions. In this study, we investigate landscape-scale functional distribution responses of beech forests in a climatic transitional zone in Europe. We construct empirical density distribution responses for beech forests by applying coping-resilience-failure climatic traits based on 27 bioclimatic variables, resulting in prevalence-decay-exclusion distribution response patterns. We also perform multivariate exploratory cluster analysis to reveal significant sets of response patterns from the resilience and adaptation aspects. Temperature-related distribution responses presented a prevalence-dominated functional pattern, with Annual mean temperature indicating the most favorable adaptation function. Precipitation indices showed climate-limited response patterns with the dominance of extinction function. Considering regional site-specific climate change projections, these continental beech forests could regress moderately due to temperature increase in the near future. Our results also suggest that both summer and winter precipitation could play a pivotal role in successful resilience. Functions and variables that indicate climate sensitivity can serve as a useful starting point to develop adaptation measures for regional forest management.

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Prediction of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) xeric limit using a regional climate model: An example from southeast Europe

Cited by 47 publications

References 37 publications

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

The Resistance of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) From the Eastern Natural Limit of Species to Climate Change

Functional Response Trait Analysis Improves Climate Sensitivity Estimation in Beech Forests at a Trailing Edge

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