Prediction of the virus incubation period for COVID-19 and future outbreaks

Abstract

A crucial factor in mitigating respiratory viral outbreaks is early determination of the duration of the incubation period and, accordingly, the required quarantine time for potentially exposed individuals. Here, we explore different genomic features of RNA viruses that correlate with the incubation times and provide a predictive model that accurately estimates the upper limit incubation time for diverse viruses including SARS-CoV-2, and thus, could help control future outbreaks.

Self-organizing algorithm for pilot modeling the reaction of society to the phenomenon of the Black Swan

“…5) The obtained models suggest the cyclic components in the process under consideration: the demand for artificial intelligence systems in medicine SPmIw 9-12-28 years; for scientific and practical publications on the problems of a new coronovirus infection -3-6-12-14 weeks (in the first half of 2020); for the spread of diseases in countries: CoVRus -7-16-16 days, CovUz -6-15-30 days and CovCb 3-6 -18 days (this does not contradict the findings of the virologist [41]). Therefore, the cyclical distribution can be estimated as (6-7) -(12-15) -(27-30) days.…”

A Syndromic Surveillance Tool to Detect Anomalous Clusters of COVID-19 Symptoms in the United States

“…The data for each of these metrics, however, is temporally inconsistent and often delayed due to incubation time of the virus (2-14 days), the time from the onset of symptoms until clinical care is obtained, the time from test to confirmed test result, and, in the more severe cases, the time from hospital admission to death. 2,3 It is estimated existing epidemiological accounts of COVID-19, when measured in counts of confirmed cases or deaths, provides a snapshot of infections acquired 2-4 weeks previously. 4 To further complicate matters, the information around each of these sources of error has varied dramatically since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.…”