Prediction studies of the epidemic peak of coronavirus disease in Japan: From Caputo derivatives to Atangana–Baleanu derivatives

Abstract

New atypical pneumonia caused by a virus called Coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Unlike previous epidemics due to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), COVID-19 has the particularity that it is more contagious than the other previous ones. In this paper, we try to predict the COVID-19 epidemic peak in Japan with the help of real-time data from January 15 to February 29, 2020 with the uses of fractional derivatives, namely, Caputo derivatives, the Caputo–Fabrizio derivatives, and Atangana–Baleanu derivatives in the Caputo sense. The fixed point theory and Picard–Lindel of approach used in this study provide the proof for the existence and uniqueness analysis of the solutions to the noninteger-order models under the investigations. For each fractional model, we propose a numerical scheme as well as prove its stability. Using parameter values estimated from the Japan COVID-19 epidemic real data, we perform numerical simulations to confirm the effectiveness of used approximation methods by numerical simulations for different values of the fractional-order [Formula: see text], and to give the predictions of COVID-19 epidemic peaks in Japan in a specific range of time intervals.

Multilayered hybrid time-varying problem solving based on integrated-enhanced zeroing neural network for robust manipulator control

“…Beside, if integer derivatives are replaced by fractional derivatives during the development of algorithm, it may be still effective for manipulator control. It is an interesting further research direction [30] .…”

Bifurkasi Pada Model Penyebaran Penyakit MERS-CoV di Dua Wilayah dengan Populasi Konstan

“…Kami menganalisa titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit dan titik ekuilibrium non-trivial serta kestabilannya, bilangan reproduksi dasar dan juga analisa sensitivitas. Selain MERS-CoV, makalah [8] disitasi oleh banyak model penyakit lainnya, seperti COVID-19 pada [9][10][11][12][13][14] dan Chikungunya [15].…”

Fractional COVID-19 Modeling and Analysis on Successive Optimal Control Policies

“…However, very little research in this direction does exist, such as in [39][40][41][42][43][44] and this type of strategy can be used to suggest or design epidemic control programs [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]28,45,46]. Many studies consider different parameters such as geolocation in different countries, as in [26] for India, [47] Japan and [48] for Saudi Arabia. The global and local dynamics of COVID-19 may be completely characterized by mathematical models operating under fractional order derivatives.…”