Predictive Evaluation of Ship Collision Risk Using the Concept of Probability Flow

Park, Jeonghong; Kim, Jinwhan

doi:10.1109/joe.2016.2614870

Cited by 53 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The accuracy of both methods is degraded when the conflict period is long, such as for parallel scenarios, or when the conflict probability is not negligible, [2], which is the case relevant to conflict detection. In [9], the probability flow is still adopted but decomposed into two contributions, a diffusion and a drift term, in order to ease the calculation of the collision probability between two ships. Still, the same issues of the method in [8] are present.…”

Section: Probabilistic Methods For CDmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability estimation in aircraft conflict detection: a simple and computationally effective method with accuracy certificates

Pour

Nobahari

Prandini

2019

2019 18th European Control Conference (ECC)

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In this paper, we address aircraft conflict detection on a mid-term horizon. We adopt a probabilistic approach and provide a simple method to estimate the probability of two aircraft getting closer than some minimum predefined distance, based on a commonly adopted Gaussian model of the deviation from their planned trajectories. A key feature of our method is that the probability estimate is accompanied by a deterministic accuracy certificate. This is achieved by adopting a geometric approach to conflict probability estimation and jointly computing a lower and an upper bound on the conflict probability. These bounds can be inspected and refined if the resulting accuracy of the probability estimate is not adequate. Successive refinements are guaranteed to lead to an estimate with the desired accuracy. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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Section: Probabilistic Methods For CDmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability estimation in aircraft conflict detection: a simple and computationally effective method with accuracy certificates

Pour

Nobahari

Prandini

2019

2019 18th European Control Conference (ECC)

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“…Park et al [25] proposed the use of trajectory uncertainties to evaluate the probabilistic quantification of ship collision risk. Park and Kim [26] proposed the use of probability flow for the predictive evaluation of ship collision risk. Lin and Yuan [27] proposed a ship collision risk algorithm based on an improved backpropagation neural network.…”

Section: Relative Research On the Evaluation Of Ship Collision Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Warning Method and Model of Inland Ship Collision Risk Based on Coordinated Collision-Avoidance Actions

Cheng

2020

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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To reduce the occurrence of ship collisions, immediate danger, and close-quarters situations in narrow inland waterways, a step-by-step early warning system for ship collision-avoidance actions was developed, along with an early warning method and model of collision risk based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions. This study first analyzed the importance of coordinated collision-avoidance actions in inland waterways, and the process and key components of coordinated collision-avoidance actions were studied. Then, the early warning method of inland ship collision risk based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions was introduced; the effectiveness of the early warning method was comparatively analyzed via experimental observations. A framework of early warning model of inland ship collision risk was created based on the early warning method; a collision risk early warning model for inland ships based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions was proposed according to the relationship between the distance/time to the closest point of approach (DCPA, TCPA), coordination degree of collision-avoidance actions of the two considered ships and collision risk; moreover, the early warning model of inland ship collision risk was further considered for quantitative calculation. Finally, the application of the early warning method and model was demonstrated using a case study. The results indicate that the early warning method of inland ship collision risk based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions could effectively reduce the emergence of close-quarters situations and immediate danger, and the early warning model could quantitatively show the evolution of collision risk of two ships along with the process of coordinated collision-avoidance actions.

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“…Moreover, Cui et al [8] applied the classification regression tree to predict the location of fishing grounds; the experimental results proved that the classification regression tree has a good prediction accuracy under the condition of a small training sample size and low feature dimension. Park and Kim [9] introduced the concept of probability flow to develop an analytically sound problem formulation considering time‐varying ship trajectory uncertainties; in particular, a collision risk index was proposed to quantify the expected collision risk. Borkowski [10] proposed an algorithm for ship movement trajectory prediction, which, through navigational data fusion, makes use of measurements of the ship's current position from a number of doubled autonomous devices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of ship collision risk based on CART

Guo

Yang

et al. 2018

IET Intelligent Transport Systems

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Predictive Evaluation of Ship Collision Risk Using the Concept of Probability Flow

Cited by 53 publications

References 41 publications

Probability estimation in aircraft conflict detection: a simple and computationally effective method with accuracy certificates

Probability estimation in aircraft conflict detection: a simple and computationally effective method with accuracy certificates

Early Warning Method and Model of Inland Ship Collision Risk Based on Coordinated Collision-Avoidance Actions

Prediction of ship collision risk based on CART

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