Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

Abstract

The decrease in the economic activity level around the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic spread has led to a sharp decrease in the crude oil price and provoked an oil war outbreak in the global energy market. The current situation has provoked the need for a total decrease in the crude oil production in the world. Considering that Russia is one of the main oil exporters on the world market, the need to determine the supply and demand levels for Russian oil is becoming relevant. The aim of the paper is to model predictive scenarios of Russian oil industry development, considering the specifics of the current economic environment given the COVID-19 pandemic. The multifactor correlation modeling method was used to form the system of indicators determining the level of demand and supply for Russian oil used and the total level of their influence. The functions determine the probability of implementing various scenarios of oil industry development depending on the predicted values of demand and supply. The three-sigma rule and the fuzzy sets method were used to estimate three scenarios of oil industry development for 2020–2021. Changes in revenues of the industry under the influence of forecast indicators of supply and demand for oil have been assessed and the probability of implementation of each of the scenarios has been reasoned. The results obtained are of a practical nature and can be used by government agencies, financial intermediaries, and scientists to diagnose Russian oil industry development. The results will be useful for oil companies to develop a strategy of open innovations for further design of the scientific information field for the effective functioning of the industry in complete uncertainty conditions.

The Effectiveness of Russian Government Policy to Support SMEs in the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…When studying the impact of a pandemic spread on the economy, as a rule, scholars focused on determining a system of macroeconomic indicators, for example, GDP and its variations in the process of aggravating the situation with the course of a pandemic and the introduction of social distancing and self-isolation measures [ 38 , 39 , 40 ]. Additionally, scholars are most commonly occupied with determining and forecasting social [ 25 , 39 , 41 , 42 ] and economic [ 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 ] costs resulting from a pandemic. Attention was focused on different levels of severity of the effects of the pandemic progression [ 43 , 45 , 46 ], its impact on market supply and demand [ 40 , 45 ], changes in the number of hours worked [ 40 ] because of the requirement of isolation and fear of being infected, etc.…”

“…Additionally, scholars are most commonly occupied with determining and forecasting social [ 25 , 39 , 41 , 42 ] and economic [ 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 ] costs resulting from a pandemic. Attention was focused on different levels of severity of the effects of the pandemic progression [ 43 , 45 , 46 ], its impact on market supply and demand [ 40 , 45 ], changes in the number of hours worked [ 40 ] because of the requirement of isolation and fear of being infected, etc. The effects of government measures to halt the infection ingress rate on trade supply chains and on the development of international trade in general were studied in detail [ 45 , 47 ].…”

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“…Therefore, the index of industrial (excluding mining) and agricultural products (IP) was used as demand factors. For the region under study, the primary type of extracted minerals is oil, the growth of which production is a limiting factor to the development of the potential of the peat industry as it is a competing commodity when using peat as a fuel resource (Ponkratov et al, 2020). The growth of production of all other industries (except mining) and agriculture can have a stimulating effect on the development of the peat industry.…”

The impact of COVID – 19 on Collecting of Tax Revenues in Kosovo

“…The pandemic mainly affected the trade and services sector. Quarantine measures have a negative impact on the volume of exports and imports, which means that they have a negative impact on the economy [3]. According to a report on the Coronavirus and the economic situation in Eastern Europe [1], the extension of quarantine in many Eastern European countries causes a recession in their economies, on the other hand, reduced funding will call for stricter fiscal policies, deepening the recession even further.…”