Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe

Schuhen, Nina; Schaller, Nathalie; Bloomfield, Hannah; Brayshaw, David; Lledó, Llorenç; Cionni, Irene; Sillmann, Jana

doi:10.1029/2020gl092360

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Hence, it is important to understand how large-scale circulation systems influence peaks of demand and energy production to identify periods of over-and under-supply. Over time, the impact of large-scale atmospheric patterns on extreme winter temperatures mostly does not change, despite slow fluctuations of these patterns [20]. Meteorological conditions preceding energy shortfall are described as anomalous high pressure systems combined with below normal temperatures [11,21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes

Tedesco

Lenkoski

Bloomfield

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to meteorological conditions and atmospheric variability at multiple time scales. To accomplish the required balance between these two variables, critical conditions of high demand and low wind energy supply must be considered in the design of energy systems. We describe a methodology for modeling joint distributions of meteorological variables without making any assumptions about their marginal distributions. In this context, Gaussian copulas are used to model the correlated nature of cold and weak-wind events. The marginal distributions are modeled with logistic regressions defining two sets of binary variables as predictors: four large-scale weather regimes and the months of the extended winter season. By applying this framework to ERA5 data, we can compute the joint probabilities of co-occurrence of cold and weak-wind events on a high-resolution grid (0.25 deg). Our results show that a) weather regimes must be considered when modeling cold and weak-wind events, b) it is essential to account for the correlations between these events when modeling their joint distribution, c) we need to analyze each month separately, and d) the highest estimated number of days with compound events are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (3 days on average over Finland, Ireland, and Lithuania in January, and France and Luxembourg in February) and the Scandinavian Blocking pattern (3 days on average over Ireland in January and Denmark in February). This information could be relevant for application in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts of such events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes

Tedesco

Lenkoski

Bloomfield

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Hence, it is important to understand how large-scale circulation systems influence peaks of demand and energy production to identify periods of over-and under-supply. Over time, the impact of large-scale atmospheric patterns on extreme winter temperatures mostly does not change, despite slow fluctuations of these patterns [Schuhen et al, 2022]. Meteorological conditions preceding energy shortfall are described as anomalous high pressure systems combined with below normal temperatures [van der Wiel et al, 2019b, Bloomfield et al, 2018, van der Wiel et al, 2019a.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes

Tedesco¹,

Lenkoski²,

Bloomfield³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to meteorological conditions and atmospheric variability at multiple time scales. To accomplish the required balance between these two variables, critical conditions of high demand and low wind energy supply must be considered in the design of energy systems. In addition, large-scale weather regimes impact the weather conditions at the surface. For instance, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian Blocking pattern are associated with cold and weak-wind events in Northern Europe. We describe a methodology for modeling joint distributions of meteorological variables without making any assumptions about their marginal distributions. In this context, the concept of Gaussian copulas is used to model the correlated nature of cold and weak-wind events. The marginal distributions are modeled with logistic regressions defining two sets of binary variables as predictors: the weather regimes and the months of the extended winter season. By applying this framework to ERA5 data, we can compute the joint probabilities of co-occurrence of cold and weak-wind events on a high-resolution grid (0.25 deg).Our results indicate that we can expect cold and weak-wind compound events on more than 10% of the days in the regimes defined by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian Blocking in January and February. This information could be relevant for application in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts of such events.Keywords Gaussian copula • compound event • extreme event • logistic regression • multivariate probability • weather regimes • ERA5 reanalysis • renewable energy • wind power • subseasonal variability.

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“…For most mountainous areas of the Mediterranean region, the occurrence of different winter regimes was closely related to the state of the NAO, although the relationship was weaker in the easternmost part of the Mediterranean Basin [26]. Using indices to determine periods of extremely cold or warm temperatures, it was found that teleconnection patterns, such as the NAO, EA, SCAND and EA/WR, in some regions of Europe correlate or anticorrelate to a large extent with cold or heat waves [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

Sukhonos

Vyshkvarkova

2023

Climate

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Recent studies show an increase in the frequency of compound extremes in air temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world, especially under dry and hot conditions. Compound extremes have a significant impact on all spheres of human activity, such as health, agriculture, and energy. Features of atmospheric circulation are closely related to the occurrence of anomalies in air temperature and precipitation. The article analyzes the relationship of atmospheric circulation modes with compound extremes that have had the greatest impact on the Atlantic–European region over the territory of Eastern Europe over the past 60 years on extreme air temperature and precipitation. Combinations of extreme temperature and humidity conditions (indices)— cold-dry (CD), cold-wet (CW), warm-dry (WD) and warm-wet (WW)—were used as compound extremes. Indices of compound extremes were calculated according to the E-OBS reanalysis data. Estimates of the relationship between two time series were carried out using standard correlation and composite analyses, as well as cross wavelet analysis. Phase relationships and time intervals for different climatic indices were different. The period of most fluctuations in the indices of compound extremes was from 4 to 12 years and was observed during 1970–2000. The coherent fluctuations in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index occurred rather in phase, those in the time series of the CD and WD indices and the Arctic oscillation (AO) index occurred in antiphase, and those in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND) index occurred in antiphase. Statistically significant increase in the number of warm compound extremes was found for the northern parts of the study region in the winter season with positive NAO and AO phases.

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Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe

Cited by 6 publications

References 52 publications

Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes

Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes

Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

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