Predictive Spatial Modelling of Alternative Control Strategies for the Foot-and- Mouth Disease Epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

Morris, R.S.; Wilesmith, J. W.; Stern, M.W.; Sanson, R.L.; Stevenson, MA

doi:10.17660/actahortic.2001.566.43

Cited by 31 publications

(40 citation statements)

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“…The FMD epidemic also saw the first extensive use of simulation and analytical models to inform disease control during an outbreak. These models used a combination of epidemiological and demographic data from the UK annual agricultural census (http://www.defra.gov.uk/esg/work_htm/publications/cs/farmstats_web/Census/introduction.htm) to inform disease control at the farm level (Ferguson et al 2001; Keeling et al 2001; Morris et al 2001). Despite their limitations (Haydon et al 2004), these data provide a picture of a uniquely well-described population, including spatial relationships between agricultural premises (most importantly for our purposes, farms and markets), information about the susceptibility and infectiousness of nodes (species mix and census population size) and the direction, timing (to nearest day) and weighting (number and species of livestock) of the livestock movements between them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK

Kao

Green

Johnson

et al. 2007

J. R. Soc. Interface.

148

142

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We analyse the relationship between the network of livestock movements in the UK and the dynamics of two diseases: foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has an incubation period of days, and scrapie, which incubates over years. For FMD, the time-scale of expected epidemics is similar to the time-scale of the evolution of the network. We argue that, under appropriate conditions, a static network analysis can be an appropriate tool for gaining insights into disease dynamics even when the relevant time-scales are similar, as with FMD. We show that a subclass of 'linkage moves' maintains the network structure, and so removing these links has a dramatic effect on the number of potentially infected farms, an effect corroborated by simulations. In contrast, because scrapie has a low probability of transmission per contact and a long incubation period, a static network representation is probably appropriate; however, the signature of the network in the pattern of transmission is likely to be faint. Scrapie-notifying farms were more likely to be associated with each other via trading at markets than were control farms; however, network community structure proves to be less representative of prevalence patterns than geographical region. These contradictory indicators emphasize that appropriate observation time frames and good discrimination among types of potentially infectious contacts are vital in order for network analysis to be a valuable epidemiological tool.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK

Kao

Green

Johnson

et al. 2007

J. R. Soc. Interface.

148

142

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“…Studies employing epidemiological models suggest that the duration of the epidemic with vaccination differs relatively little from a stampingout strategy (Kobayashi et al 2007). Nevertheless, this and other studies also show that the advantage of vaccination compared to stamping-out depends heavily on parameters as the index case (animal type and location), the radius of vaccination and slaughter around the outbreaks (Bates, Carpenter & Thurmond 2003), (Morris et al 2001), the characteristics of the infected region (Morris et al 2001) and the speed of spread of the disease () among others. Some studies even indicate that a comprehensive slaughter strategy can be more time efficient in containing the disease than a combination of a less comprehensive slaughter strategy with limited vaccination (Bates, Carpenter & Thurmond 2003).…”

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confidence: 64%

Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks and Alternative Control Practices on Agricultural Markets and Trade

Junker¹,

Ilicic-Komorowska

Tongeren

2009

OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers

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“…). Whilst modelling of vaccination has been carried out for intensive systems (Morris et al., ; Keeling et al., ; Tildesley et al., ), it is unlikely to represent the Mongolian system, which is extensive and has a high proportion of sheep and goats in comparison to cattle. Mongolia also differs in that the majority of herders manage sheep, goats and cattle.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology of the 2010 Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Mongolia

McFadden

Tsedenkhuu²,

Bold³

et al. 2014

Transbound Emerg Dis

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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in five provinces and 24 counties as part of the FMD incursion into Mongolia during 2010. The first detection occurred on 21 April 2010 (confirmed 26 April 2010) with the last detection occurring approximately 8 months later on 13 December 2010. The number of livestock detected in the spring phase of the outbreak was 323 cattle and in the summer phase was 13 485 sheep, 6748 cattle, 5692 goats and 10 camels (total livestock summer phase = 25 935; for spring and summer phases combined = 26 258). Infection of livestock was confirmed by PCR for each affected county but not necessarily for every outbreak cluster involving more than one herder. It is likely that the summer phase of the outbreak was a continuation of the spring event. In the summer phase, the spatio-temporal pattern of spread suggested an extension of infection from the main cluster in the Sukhbaatar county. There was also a number of long-distance clusters established. The relative importance of spread by three potential pathways of gazelle, livestock, animal product and fomite movements has not been determined and will require further study. The estimated dissemination ratio (EDR) did not provide evidence of high rate of transmission of infection between herders; however, the data are limited by the quality of surveillance and the method of calculation which used the date of detection rather than the date of infection.

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Predictive Spatial Modelling of Alternative Control Strategies for the Foot-and- Mouth Disease Epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

Cited by 31 publications

References 0 publications

Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK

Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK

Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks and Alternative Control Practices on Agricultural Markets and Trade

Epidemiology of the 2010 Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Mongolia

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