Predictive Study of Tuberculosis Incidence by ARMA Model Combined with Air Pollution Variables

Abstract

China has the second largest number of tuberculosis (TB) cases in the world, and the Xinjiang province has the highest TB incidence in China. Urumqi is the capital city of Xinjiang; good TB prevention and control in Urumqi can provide an example for other parts of Xinjiang, considering that predicting the TB incidence is the prerequisite of prevention and control; therefore, it is necessary to do a prediction study on TB incidence in Urumqi. In this paper, based on the data of TB incidence and air pollution variables (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, O3) in Urumqi, the ARMA (1, (1, 3)) + model was established by time series ARMA model method, cross-correlation analysis, and principal component regression method, and its predictive performance was superior to that of the ARMA (1, (1, 3)) model based on TB historical data. The research idea of this paper was good, which can provide a reference for other researchers. The prediction of the ARMA (1, (1, 3)) + model can provide scientific help for TB prevention and control in Urumqi, China. During the analysis, it was found that the higher the concentration of O3, the higher the incidence of TB. This study suggests that people in Urumqi should pay more attention to the hazards of O3 and do a good job of personal protection.

Forecast Methods for Time Series Data: A Survey

“…Experiments prove that the adaptive ARMA model is more accurate than the traditional ARMA model in forecasting 24 hours and one week in advance. Yanling Zheng et al [9] based on the data of tuberculosis incidence and air pollution variables (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, O-3) in Urumqi, the ARMA (1, (1, 3)) + model was established by time series ARMA model method, cross-correlation analysis, and principal component regression method, and its predictive performance was superior to that of the ARMA (1, (1, 3)) model based on tuberculosis historical data. During the analysis, it was found that the higher the concentration of O-3, the higher the incidence of tuberculosis .…”

A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang

“…Several studies have shown the effect of air pollution on the PTB cases in Urumqi. For example, an ARMA (1, (1, 3)) + model was established to analyze the correlation between air pollutants and the incidence of PTB in Urumqi from 2014 to 2017 and found that the higher concentration of O 3 , the higher PTB incidence [ 13 ]. Yang et al .…”

“…Several studies have shown the effect of air pollution on the PTB cases in Urumqi. For example, an ARMA (1, (1, 3)) + model was established to analyze the correlation between air pollutants and the incidence of PTB in Urumqi from 2014 to 2017 and found that the higher concentration of O 3 , the higher PTB incidence [13]. Yang et al [14] used a generalized additive model to analyze the relationship between air pollutants and PTB incidence and it was indicated that the combined effect of PM 10 and NO 2 had the greatest impact on the incidence of tuberculosis.…”