Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Romania

Abstract

Empirical actuarial measures are significantly more accurate than unstructured clinical judgments in predicting recidivism risk of incarcerated populations across different cultures. In a retrospective study, we examined the predictive validity of the Static-99R, the actuarial measure most used around the world for assessing the recidivism risk of persons who committed a sexual offense (PCS), in a sample of 518 male PCS in Romania. The results showed a good predictive validity for any kind of recidivism (area under the curve [AUC] = .70) and a slightly lower predictive accuracy for violent (AUC = .69) and sexual recidivism (AUC = .67). Effect sizes and the predictive validity of the single items of the Static-99R have also been examined. In addition, the predicted rates of reconviction have been compared with the observed rates. The Romanian version of the Static-99R has been shown as a valid, useful tool to predict sexual, violent, and general recidivism for Romanian PCS.

Predictive and incremental validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and STABLE-2007 for sexual recidivism: A diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis (DTA-NMA).

“…More specifically, out of a total of 689 publications identified via literature search and gleaned from previous meta-analyses, 211 publications met our eligibility criteria, from which we excluded 157 publications due to missing information on per-risk-level sexual recidivism rates. Except for the more recent studies, most of the studies had been included in prior meta-analyses (Baudin et al, 2021; Leguízamo et al, 2017; Looman et al, 2021; Toma et al, 2022; Wong, 2021). In cases where samples had been reported in more than one publication, only the information provided in the most recently published article was included in the analysis.…”