Preliminary Prediction of the Strength of the 24th 11-Year Solar Cycle

Hamid, Ramiz; Galal, A. A.

doi:10.1017/s1743921306002390

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 2 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…Schatten (2005) believed that the value is even lower: Wmax = 80±30. Hamid & Galal (2006), as a matter of fact, confirmed this estimate: they obtained Wmax = 90.7±9.2. Recently, Pesnell & Schatten (2007) gave new arguments in favor of the low estimate, Wmax = 80±35, based on the Babcock-Leighton model of the solar cycle and on the analysis of radio flux variations.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

Chumak

Matveychuk

2010

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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To predict the key parameters of the solar cycle, a new method is proposed based on the empirical law describing the correlation between the maximum height of the preceding solar cycle and the entropy of the forthcoming one. The entropy of the forthcoming cycle may be estimated using this empirical law, if the maximum height of the current cycle is known. The cycle entropy is shown to correlate well with the cycle's maximum height and, as a consequence, the height of the forthcoming maximum can be estimated. In turn, the correlation found between the height of the maximum and the duration of the ascending branch (the Waldmeier rule) allows the epoch of the maximum, Tmax, to be estimated, if the date of the minimum is known. Moreover, using the law discovered, one can find out the analogous cycles which are similar to the cycle being forecasted, and hence, obtain the synoptic forecast of all main features of the forthcoming cycle. The estimates have shown the accuracy level of this technique to be 86%. The new regularities discovered are also interesting because they are fundamental in the theory of solar cycles and may provide new empirical data. The main parameters of the future solar cycle 24 are as follows: the height of the maximum is Wmax = 95±20, the duration of the ascending branch is Ta = 4.5±0.5 yr, the total cycle duration according to the synoptic forecast is 11.3 yr.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

Chumak

Matveychuk

2010

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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“…Although the timing predictions are listed in Table 1, they will not be discussed further. 91.9 ± 27.9 2011.04 S Autoregressive, moving average Roth (2006) 90.7 ± 9.2 -P Number of spotless days at minimum Hamid and Galal (2006) 90 ± 10 8/2012 -Panel consensus prediction (low)…”

Section: Predictions Of Cycle 24mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24

2008

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A summary and analysis of more than 50 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. All of the predictions were published before solar minimum and represent our efforts to anticipate solar maximum at ever-earlier epochs. The consistency of the predictions within their assigned categories is discussed. Estimates of the significance of the predictions, compared to the climatological average, are presented.

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“…Two important examples of this type of signals are the intensity of solar polar magnetic fields and geomagnetic activity at the declining phase or cycle minimum (Schatten, 2005;Svalgaard, Cliver, and Kamide, 2005;Hathaway and Wilson, 2006;Jain, 2006;Hamid and Galal, 2006;Kane, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictions of the Maximum Amplitude, Time of Occurrence, and Total Length of Solar Cycle 24

Uzal¹,

Piacentini²,

Verdes³

2012

Sol Phys

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In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time series. We characterise the predictive power of the proposed methodology in a causal manner by an incremental incorporation of past solar cycles to the available data base. In regressing maximum cycle intensity to curvature at the leading minimum we obtain a correlation coefficient R ≈ 0.91 and for the upcoming Cycle 24 a forecast of 78 (90% confidence interval: 56 -106).Ascent time also appears to be highly correlated to the second derivative at the starting minimum (R ≈ -0.77), predicting maximum solar activity for October 2013 (90% confidence interval: January 2013 to September 2014). Solar Cycle 24 should come to an end by February 2020 (90% confidence interval: January 2019 to July 2021), although in this case correlational evidence is weaker (R ≈ -0.56).

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Preliminary Prediction of the Strength of the 24th 11-Year Solar Cycle

Cited by 12 publications

References 2 publications

Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24

Predictions of the Maximum Amplitude, Time of Occurrence, and Total Length of Solar Cycle 24

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