This is the accepted version of the paper.This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. Tweet: A single training intervention with an instructional game or video produced large and persistent reductions in decision bias.
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Debiasing Decisions 3Highlights:• Biases in judgment and decision making create predictable errors in domains such as intelligence analysis, policy, law, medicine, business, and private life• Debiasing interventions can be effective, inexpensive methods to improve decision making and reduce the costly errors that decision biases produce• We found a short, single training intervention (i.e., playing a computer game or watching a video) produced persistent reductions in six cognitive biases critical to intelligence analysis• Training appears to be an effective debiasing intervention to add to existing interventions such as improvements in incentives, information presentation, and how decisions are elicited (nudges)Debiasing Decisions 4 "Indeed, it appears that in some instances analysts' presumptions were so firm that they simply disregarded evidence that did not support their hypotheses. As we saw in several instances, when confronted with evidence that indicated Iraq did not have WMD, analysts tended to discount such information. Rather than weighing the evidence independently, analysts accepted information that fit the prevailing theory and rejected information that contradicted it.