Present and future distribution of three aquatic plants taxa across the world: decrease in native and increase in invasive ranges

Abstract

International audienceInland aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to both climate change and biological invasion at broad spatial scales. The aim of this study was to establish the current and future potential distribution of three invasive plant taxa, Egeria densa, Myriophyllum aquaticum and Ludwigia spp., in their native and exotic ranges. We used species distribution models (SDMs), with nine different algorithms and three global circulation models, and we restricted the suitability maps to cells containing aquatic ecosystems. The current bioclimatic range of the taxa was predicted to represent 6.6-12.3% of their suitable habitats at global scale, with a lot of variations between continents. In Europe and North America, their invasive ranges are predicted to increase up to two fold by 2070 with the highest gas emission scenario. Suitable new areas will mainly be located to the north of their current range. In other continents where they are exotic and in their native range (South America), the surface areas of suitable locations are predicted to decrease with climate change, especially for Ludwigia spp. in South America (down to -55% by 2070 with RCP 8.5 scenario). This study allows to identify areas vulnerable to ongoing invasions by aquatic plant species and thus could help the prioritisation of monitoring and management, as well as contribute to the public awareness regarding biological invasions

Identifying areas of aquatic plant richness in a Mediterranean hotspot to improve the conservation of freshwater ecosystems

“…Several studies have found that terrestrial macroclimatic variables are useful when developing SDMs for aquatic species (Gallardo et al, ; Kelly et al, ; Reshetnikov & Ficetola, ; Rodríguez‐Merino, García‐Murillo, Cirujano, & Fernández‐Zamudio, ). In this study, the climatic variables with the greatest predictive value were annual mean temperature and precipitation in the driest quarter, which concurs with the findings of other similar studies (Gillard, Thiébaut, Deleu, & Leroy, ; Rodríguez‐Merino et al, ). These results support the hypothesis that climate drives large‐scale species distribution patterns (Pearson & Dawson, ).…”

Potential Impact of Climate Change on One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal

“…Rise in temperature supports in dispersion of the invasive species to the greater range (71). In high gas emission scenario, invasive species tends to occupy or increase their habitat range by two-fold by 2070 (71). Our model has exhibited annual mean temperature and annual range temperature as important bioclimatic variables.…”

“…Study suggests that Mikania micrantha is spreading in aggressive way and has created problem in component of biodiversity like in forest cover, water availability, agriculture and even in grassland (66,69,70). Rise in temperature supports in dispersion of the invasive species to the greater range (71). In high gas emission scenario, invasive species tends to occupy or increase their habitat range by two-fold by 2070 (71).…”

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

“…Yet, it is most likely that future hotspots of invasions might be located in newly industrialized and developing economies (see Dyer et al, 2017 for birds). Another potential bias comes from the lack of distinction between native and alien ranges where climate change effects can be divergent, as recently suggested for three invasive freshwater macrophytes that were predicted to increase in their alien range but decrease in their native range (Gillard, Thiebaut, Deleu, & Leroy, 2017). Although the most damaging impacts from some IAS occur on islands (Bellard, Rysman, Leroy, Claud, & Mace, 2017) and eradication programs are mainly implemented there (Jones et al, 2016), most of the studies analyzed here focused on mainland systems (except for Hawaii and New Zealand).…”