Present and future potential distribution of the endangered Anairetes alpinus (Passeriformes: Tyrannidae) under global climate change scenarios

Atauchi, P. Joser; Aucca-Chutas, Constantino; Ferro, Gregorio; Prieto‐Torres, David A.

doi:10.1007/s10336-020-01762-z

Cited by 18 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…We used species distribution modeling (SDM; Elith et al, 2011) to predict the distribution of A. yucatanensis and three subspecies (A. y. yucatanensis, A. y. cerviniventris, A. y. chalconota). An important step in ecological niche modeling is to delineate a realistic calibration region ('M', BAM diagram; Sober on & Townsend Peterson, 2005); that is, the set of sites accessible to a species over which models are calibrated (Atauchi et al, 2020;Barve et al, 2011;Freeman et al, 2019;Sober on & Townsend Peterson, 2005). In this study, we calibrated the SDMs for A. yucatanensis and the three subspecies (in practice a mask or GIS polygon) using a geographical clipping based on the ecoregions of eastern Mexico (Figure 1D and S1) proposed by Olson et al (2001), representing potential boundaries on the landscape to dispersal (Barve et al, 2011).…”

Section: Data Collection and Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Future Potential Distribution of Buff-Bellied Hummingbird (Amazilia yucatanensis) Under Climate Change: Species vs. Subspecies

Vásquez-Aguilar

Ornelas

Rodríguez‐Gómez

2021

Tropical Conservation Science

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Global climate change is associated with changes in precipitation patterns and an increase in extreme weather events, which might shift the geographic distribution of species. Despite the importance of this topic, information is lacking for many species, particularly tropical birds. Here, we developed species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections of the distribution of the widespread Buff-bellied Hummingbird ( Amazilia yucatanensis) and for each of the recognized subspecies ( A. y. yucatanensis, A. y. cerviniventris, A. y. chalconota), under climate change scenarios. Using SDMs we evaluate current and future projections of their potential distribution for four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) for the years 2050 and 2070. We also calculated the subspecies climatic niche breadth to test the relationship between their area of distribution and climatic niche breadth and their niche overlap. Future climate-change models suggested a small increase in the potential distribution of the species and the subspecies A. y. yucatanensis, but the predicted potential geographic range decreased in A. y. chalconota and remained unaffected in A. y. cerviniventris. The climatic niche of A. y. cerviniventris contained part niche space of A. y. yucatanensis and part of A. y. chalconota, but the climatic niches of A. y. yucatanensis and A. y. chalconota did not overlap. Our study highlights the importance of correctly choosing the taxonomic unit to be analyzed because subspecies will respond in a different manner to future climate change; therefore, conservation actions must consider intrinsic requirements of subspecies and the environmental drivers that shape their distributions.

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Section: Data Collection and Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Future Potential Distribution of Buff-Bellied Hummingbird (Amazilia yucatanensis) Under Climate Change: Species vs. Subspecies

Vásquez-Aguilar

Ornelas

Rodríguez‐Gómez

2021

Tropical Conservation Science

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“…Therefore, there is an unequivocal need to increase the area and connectivity between PA networks to maximize long-term biodiversity conservation efforts (Prieto-Torres et al 2018, Saura et al 2018. Such an expansion would also connect the plains to areas of higher altitude, where most species are likely to find suitable areas considering a pessimistic scenario of climate change (Seimon et al 2007, Şekercioğlu et al 2008, 2012, Jankowski et al 2013, Atauchi et al 2020. Hence, the inclusion of the effects of climate change in the identification of priority areas for conservation helps to enhance the effectiveness of PA networks (Hannah et al 2007;Triviño et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

Zucchetto¹,

Silveira²,

Prasniewski³

et al. 2021

ACE

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Future climate change poses an immediate threat to biodiversity. Species are shifting their geographic distribution in direct response to climate change. Species around the globe are expected to redistribute poleward and/or to high elevations. However, in the Neotropical region, the effects of climate change on species distribution are still unclear. Here, we aimed to infer the current and future geographical distribution of an insectivorous bird species endemic to South American floodplains, the Mato Grosso Antbird (Cercomacra melanaria). We also estimated shifts in the variables of elevation, longitude, latitude, and slope based on forecasting. Current and future distribution in different climate scenarios were predicted using ecological niche modeling (ENM). A non-parametric Kruskall-Wallis test followed by Dunn's post hoc test were carried out to determine if dependent variables (elevation, slope, latitude, and longitude) differed between climate scenarios. Our findings suggest that future climate change will have negative effects (range contraction) on the distribution of the Mato Grosso Antbird. The decrease in the species' geographical range will cause it to shift to higher elevations, latitudes, longitudes, and slopes. The species should tend to disperse toward more suitable areas located in highlands close to wetlands, such as the headwaters of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPB), and toward the Andean highlands. However, this species inhabits strictly forested environments covering a small home range and its mobility capacity is limited. It is possible that the species will not be able to achieve future geographical redistribution, thus increasing its risk of extinction. Effets des futurs changements climatiques sur la répartition géographique d'un oiseau endémique des plaines inondables d'Amérique du SudRÉSUMÉ. Les futurs changements climatiques constituent une menace immédiate pour la biodiversité. Les espèces modifient leur répartition géographique en réaction directe aux changements climatiques. On s'attend à ce que les espèces du monde entier se redistribuent vers les pôles ou les hautes altitudes. Cependant, dans la région Néotropicale, les effets des changements climatiques sur la répartition des espèces ne sont toujours pas clairs. Dans le présent article, nous avons tenté de déduire la répartition géographique actuelle et future d'une espèce d'oiseau insectivore endémique des plaines inondables d'Amérique du Sud, le Grisin du Mato Grosso (Cercomacra melanaria). Nous avons également calculé les changements sur le plan des variables d'altitude, de longitude, de latitude et de pente en fonction des prévisions. La répartition actuelle et future selon différents scénarios climatiques a été prédite en utilisant la modélisation de niche écologique (MNÉ). Nous avons réalisé un test non paramétrique de Kruskall-Wallis, puis un test post hoc de Dunn, pour déterminer si les variables dépendantes (altitude, pente, latitude et longitude) différaient entre les scénarios climatiques. Nos résultats indiquent ...

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“…Although it is known that climate factors may have indirect correlation with other factors, it is also suggested that estimates can be made by including edaphic and biotic factors (Özkan et al, 2015;Mert et al, 2016;Kıraç & Mert, 2019). As it is mentioned before, modeling using bioclimate variables is often preferred to reveal the possible effects of climate change (Kurpis et al, 2019;Mohammadi et al, 2019;Atauchi et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Crimean Juniper

Özdemir

Gülsoy

Mert

2020

Kastamonu Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi

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Aim of study: The main purpose of the present study is to model present and future potential distribution areas of the Crimean juniper (Juniperus excelsa M. BIEB.) under climate change. Area of study: The study was carried out in the Lakes District that covers Burdur, Isparta and Antalya provinces in the west of the Mediterranean region. Material and methods: During the study, the inventory data of 40 productive juniper stands in the region were collected. The future projections for the study area were made for the year 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and 19 bioclimatic predictors from HadGEM2-ES. Modeling process was performed by using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method. Main results: The AUC value of the model was determined as 0.966 ± 0.028. The model identified that Precipitation of Driest Month, Temperature Seasonality, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Diurnal Range were the major variables influencing the current and future distributions of the species. According to the models, there will be a dramatic decrease in the potential distribution of the Crimean juniper. Consequently, the results from all these studies will be able to create an effective base for the biodiversity and ecosystem planning studies to be realized according to the climate change scenarios. Highlights: Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of plant species in the future is an important topic in ecological researches. Climate change scenarios are the most preferred parameters to remove this uncertainty. It is predicted that the Crimean juniper will be affected by climate change and its distribution will decrease dramatically.

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Present and future potential distribution of the endangered Anairetes alpinus (Passeriformes: Tyrannidae) under global climate change scenarios

Cited by 18 publications

References 88 publications

Modeling Future Potential Distribution of Buff-Bellied Hummingbird (Amazilia yucatanensis) Under Climate Change: Species vs. Subspecies

Modeling Future Potential Distribution of Buff-Bellied Hummingbird (Amazilia yucatanensis) Under Climate Change: Species vs. Subspecies

Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Crimean Juniper

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