Presidential and Media Leadership of Public Opinion on Iraq

Abstract

Much research disputes the president's ability to lead public opinion and shows media to have influenced public opinion concerning the war in Iraq. We argue that although news tone is likely to have affected public support for the war, presidential rhetoric could be influential for two reasons. First, heightened presidential attention to the war increases the public's accessibility to the president's perspective on the war. Second, a survey question that cues the respondent to consider the president explicitly in their evaluation of the Iraq war is likely to encourage responsiveness to presidential rhetoric. To assess these arguments, we simultaneously examine the impact that presidential tone and media tone have on public support for the war in Iraq by analyzing an original dataset of presidential speeches, news coverage, and public support for the war and the president's handling of it from 2002 to 2008. Our findings reveal that although media tone drives public support for the war in Iraq, presidential tone influences the public's view of President Bush's handling of it.

In the Name of the President

“…While the areas we have explored provide a glimpse into the contexts in which presidents reference their predecessors, analyzing the tone of these references can shed light on the way in which presidents speak about their predecessors. The literature on presidential rhetoric and tone finds that the tone of a president's remarks influences the way the public views the handling of a given event or scenario by a president (see, e.g., Eshbaugh-Soha & Linebarger, 2014).…”

Making war and peace with emotion: Examining the Iraq and Iran cases via presidential speech and media coverage

“…Another reason to study emotion in mediated discussions of foreign policy is that it can influence the public’s evaluation of the policy (Coleman and Wu, 2010). Examining the US intervention in Iraq in 2003, Eshbaugh-Soha and Linebarger (2014) argue that average citizens pay scarce attention to policy details and simply use cues to form their opinion and decisions. This point echoes other scholars’ views (e.g.…”

Evaluating the Army's Ability to Regenerate: History and Future Options

“…The Army, as an organization, might not be able to directly influence public opinion on a particular war or major operation, but public support may not be a completely exogenous variable. Several studies have indicated that presidential leadership can influence public perceptions of the war to a limited degree (see, for example, Eshbaugh-Soha andLinebarger, 2014, andTedin, Rottinghaus, andRodgers, 2011). 24 Although the Army cannot control the circumstances that govern its ability to expand, it can at least plan realistically for the conditions it may encounter.…”