Purpose -The purpose is to examine the empirical relationship between trades undertaken by informed agents (managers) and the proxies for informed trades computed by bid-ask spread decomposition models.Design/methodology/approach -An econometric application of spread decomposition models to data from the London Stock Exchange, with an examination of whether the model predictions are co-integrated with actual outcomes.Findings -We find overwhelming evidence of non stationary behaviour between the actual and predicted informed trade prices. Our findings suggest that there is a clear need for an alternative to extant spread decomposition models perhaps incorporating findings from behavioural finance.Originality/value -Given the importance of stock market liquidity and the extensive use of spread decomposition models in predicting informed trades, we believe that the research conducted in our paper is an important contribution to the market microstructure literature.Keywords; Spread Decomposition Models, Information Asymmetry, Bid-Ask Spread, Time Series Modelling, Behavioural Finance.
Paper type: Empirical paper.
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AbstractIn this paper we examine the empirical relationship between trades undertaken by informed agents (managers) and the proxies for informed trades computed by bid-ask spread decomposition models. Behavioural finance offers a rationale for examining the efficacy of existing approaches. We find overwhelming evidence of non stationary behaviour between the actual and predicted informed trade prices. Our results are robust to non linear speed of adjustments of stock prices, trade sizes, trading time and calendar anomalies. Our findings suggest that there is a clear need for an alternative to extant spread decomposition models. As we present evidence that spread decomposition models do not serve to adequately address observed behaviour, we suggest avenues for further research. Given the importance of stock market liquidity and the extensive use of spread decomposition models in predicting informed trades, we believe that the research conducted in our paper is an important contribution to the market microstructure literature.