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Editorial DirectorJan Smets, Member of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Belgium
Statement of purpose:The purpose of these working papers is to promote the circulation of research results (Research Series) and analytical studies (Documents Series) made within the National Bank of Belgium or presented by external economists in seminars, conferences and conventions organised by the Bank. The aim is therefore to provide a platform for discussion. The opinions expressed are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bank of Belgium.
OrdersFor orders and information on subscriptions and reductions: National Bank of Belgium, Documentation -Publications service, boulevard de Berlaimont 14, 1000 Brussels led to pronounced price increases. This debate started in the period immediately before the euro cash changeover, as already at that time many consumers expressed their fear that the conversion would be taken as an opportunity to increase prices unduly. Immediately after the changeover in January 2002 this issue became a really hot topic. In Germany, for instance, the euro was labeled "Teuro", associating the new currency directly with the German word "teuer" -expensive. Rather than suggesting that the euro debate was a primarily German phenomenon, this metaphor illustrates the tone and intensity of the controversy at that time. Even now, 5 years after the changeover, this sentiment is still alive. magnitude is in no wise proportional to the heated character of the ongoing debate. An indirect test for price level effects is provided by Angelini and Lippi (2006): they find no evidence of a eurorelated increase in the price level using data on cash withdrawals from ATMs in Italy. Probably the most convincing argument for claiming that the inflationary impact was mild can be found in the fact that aggregate inflation in the euro area continued to be relatively close to 2 percent during the period considered, despite the occurrence of some clearly identifiable inflationary shocks which were orthogonal to the changeover, such as increases in crude oil prices, BSE-related increases in food prices, increases in indirect taxes and administered prices and the lagged transmission of the depreciation of the euro in the period 1999-2000.All this leaves us with the impression that the euro cash changeover has driven a wedge between actual and perceived inflation. The paper add...