Primary Voters as Retrospective Voters

Abstract

Although retrospective evaluations of the economy and other issues have been hypothesized as major determinants of vote choice in national and congressional elections, there has been little systematic analysis of retrospective voting in presidential primary elections. Using the 1980 Democratic primary, the author examines the influence of perceptions of the economy and other retrospective issues in selecting a party's nominee for the presidency. Although the voters' family financial situation was a significant determinant of vote choice, voters' perceptions of Carter's handling of the economy exhibited the greatest relative impact in the model. Retrospective evaluations of the energy crisis and foreign affairs, as well as ideological orientation (representing "prospective" evaluations), were also found to have an important impact on vote choice in the presidential primaries. In short, this study demonstrates that, when a primary is contested by an incumbent president, primary voters behave in a similar manner to general election voters.

Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes

“…presidential, legislative) elections, to the exclusion of gubernatorial, state, primary, or local elections (Simon et al 1991, Lewis-Beck & Rice 1992:ch. 7, Bowler & Donovan 1994, Mondardi 1994, Partin 1995. The dependent variable of vote was always about party or candidate share, never vote turnout (Rosenstone 1982, Pacek & Radcliff 1995, Southwell 1996).…”

The Intraparty Gender Gap: Differences between Male and Female Voters in the 1980–2000 Presidential Primaries

“…Table 1 illustrates that a gender difference on ideology is quite prevalent in the Republican primary electorate. If primary voters are retrospective voters (Monardi 1994;Wattier 1990), women's more pessimistic view of the economy might lead them to be less supportive of incumbents (Chaney, Alvarez, and Nagler 1998) even during the nomination stage. Men outnumber women among the conservative voters in three-quarters of the primaries, while women outnumber men among moderate voters in two-thirds of the Republican primaries.…”

Presidential Nomination Politics in the Post-Reform Era

“…Ideology has little predictive value (Marshall 1981(Marshall , 1983a(Marshall , 1984Stone, Rapoport, and Atkeson 1995), is moderately important (Monardi 1994), important in some contests but not others (Bartels 1988: chs. 8-10;Norrander 1986b), or is the second most vital factor after candidate qualities (Kenney and Rice 1992) in influencing candidate choices in primary elections.…”

“…Thus, Monardi (1994) tested a retrospective voting model for the 1980 Democratic primaries, when an incumbent president fought off a primary challenger. Evaluations of Carter's handling of the economy had a greater effect than judgements of changes in personal finances, although the latter had some influence on voters' choices.…”