Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

Abstract

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input-output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle 32 Climatic Change (2011) 106:31-55 and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the "do-nothing" option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.

The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: answering recent challenges to the paradigm

“…Also, the model treats the shoreline protection effect of wetlands as a flat rate of storm surge reduction (m) per km traversed, which does not account for the spatial non-linearity of attenuation. The authors note that wetlands may prove beneficial to infrastructure protection in other scenarios, and we agree with Francis et al (2011) that future economic models such as theirs can inform decisions about using wetland restoration for shoreline protection of power infrastructure. However, it is also imperative that decisions concerning wetland restoration are not based solely on shoreline protection for power generation facilities and other large-scale coastal infrastructure.…”

“…In this issue, Francis et al (2011) use life cycle analysis to explore the shoreline protection benefits of wetland restoration to power-supply infrastructure in an urban area. They find that wetland restoration is not the most cost effective solution for power infrastructure protection.…”

Process‐based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

“…At the same time, greater flooding from storm surge is predicted with global climate change due to rising sea levels and increased storm intensity caused by rising water temperatures (IPCC 2007, FitzGerald et al 2008. The protection and restoration of coastal wetlands can be more cost effective than barrier construction as a means to reduce storm damage (Halpern et al 2007, Costanza et al 2008, although see Francis et al 2011).…”

Guest editorial on coastal adaptation

“…The second paper by Francis et al (2011) tests three scenarios of electric power networks with and without wetland restoration and with and without underground infrastructure hardening in a hypothetical town of 5,000 located between Category 3 and 5 hurricane storm surge zones on the North Carolina coast. As an important theme of the issue, the paper investigates the synergistic effects of wetland restoration and infrastructural protection.…”