Process‐based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

Cuddington, Kim; Fortin, Marie‐Josée; Gerber, Leah R.; Hastings, Alan; Liebhold, Andrew M.; O’Connor, Mary I.; Ray, Chris

doi:10.1890/es12-00178.1

Cited by 222 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Process-based, monthly time step models can achieve these goals with considerably lower computational requirements than finer temporal scale models. Third, if a process-based model is calibrated to historical conditions it can be useful in climate change studies because it can potentially better represent local and regional future responses to change than statistical or rule-based models (Cuddington et al 2013). Relevant to all hydrological models, natural resource managers often require finer spatial scale data than are generated by GCMs, therefore requiring downscaling of GCM outputs for use in resource planning (Littell et al 2012).…”

Section: Projections Of Future Climates From Generalmentioning

confidence: 99%

The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California's watersheds

2015

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Abstract. Process-based models that link climate and hydrology permit improved assessments of climate change impacts among watersheds. We used the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model to (1) ask what is the magnitude of historical and projected future change in the hydrology of California's watersheds; (2) test the spatial congruence of watersheds with the most historical and future hydrologic change; and (3) identify watersheds with high levels of hydrologic change under drier and wetter future climates. We assessed change for 5135 watersheds over a 60-year historical period and compared it to 90-year future projections. Watershed change was analyzed for climatic water deficit, April 1st snowpack, recharge, and runoff. Watersheds were ranked by change for the historical and two future scenarios. We developed a normalized index of hydrologic change that combined the four variables, and identified which watersheds show the most spatial congruence of large historical change and continued change under the two futures. Of the top 20% of all watersheds (1028), 591 in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and Northwestern ecoregions have high spatial congruence across all time periods. Among watersheds where change accelerates in the future, but not historically, a majority are congruent between both climate models, predominantly in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Ranges and the Northwestern ecoregions. This congruence of impacts in watersheds under drier or wetter scenarios is driven by snowpack, but in areas with low snowpack, hydrologic change varied spatially depending on projected precipitation and temperature, with 151 watersheds in Northwestern California showing high levels of drying under the drier scenario, while 103 watersheds in Central western and Southwestern California show increasing hydrologic activity under the wetter scenario. In some regions, the loss of snowpack allows the cycle of runoff and recharge to function without delay represented by springtime snow melt, causing these watersheds to become more immediately hydrologically responsive to changing climate. The study also found watersheds with low rainfall that have already passed through their highest response to changing climate, and show less future change. The methods used here can also be used to identify watersheds resilient to changing climate.

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Section: Projections Of Future Climates From Generalmentioning

confidence: 99%

The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California's watersheds

2015

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“…Our results thus suggest that measures blocking pathways for IPS in PAs could effectively control the spread of IPS worldwide. Further research is needed to complement our study, such as modelling plant invasions with greater spatial resolution (Cuddington et al, 2013;Hulme et al, 2014). The Supplement related to this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.5194/we-17-69-2017-supplement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such prevention depends on early detection and mechanisms to avoid introductions of IPS (Meier et al, 2014;Donaldson et al, 2014), whereas IPS control is related to measures to remove or eradicate invasive species in a particular area (Foxcroft et al, 2011Meier et al, 2014). Hence, a review of the conservation policies of PAs is of utmost importance Cuddington et al, 2013). For example, European legislation plays a crucial role in developing policies to protect the environment and meeting its objectives for sustainable development (http://jncc.defra.gov.uk/page-1372).…”

Section: Bio1mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling plant invasion pathways in protected areas under climate change: implication for invasion management

Wang¹,

Wan²,

QingBiao³

et al. 2017

Web Ecol.

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Abstract. Global climate change may enable invasive plant species (IPS) to invade protected areas (PAs), but plant invasion on a global scale has not yet been explicitly addressed. Here, we mapped the potential invasion pathways for IPS in PAs across the globe and explored potential factors determining the pathways of plant invasion under climate change. We used species distribution modelling to estimate the suitable habitats of 386 IPS and applied a corridor analysis to compute the potential pathways of IPS in PAs under climate change. Subsequently, we analysed the potential factors affecting the pathways in PAs. According to our results, the main potential pathways of IPS in PAs are in Europe, eastern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, and eastern regions of South America and are strongly influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation. Protected areas can play an important role in preventing and controlling the spread of IPS under climate change. This is due to the fact that measures are taken to monitor climate change in detail, to provide effective management near or inside PAs, and to control the introduction of IPS with a high capacity for natural dispersal. A review of conservation policies in PAs is urgently needed.

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“…Jakeman et al 2006, Evans et al 2011, Grimm & Railsback 2011, Robinson et al 2011, Dormann et al 2012, Cuddington et al 2013. One possible approach, so-called hybrid modeling, takes the output from mechanistic models as input for correlative models to predict spatial distributions (e.g.…”

Section: Mechanistic Models and Their Integration With Empirical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Correlative approaches should therefore be seen as an initial step in developing an understanding of the key processes. This understanding is essential if we wish to accurately predict and forecast species distributions, especially in the face of global climate change, as correlative relationships may not apply under different ocean climate conditions (Myers 1998), and models built upon them may become less accurate over time (Beaumont et al 2008, Morin & Lechowicz 2008, Cuddington et al 2013.Further, correlative approaches are primarily descriptive -their intent is to describe how much of the variability in the data can be explained with independent predictor variables, and to allow interpolation (i.e. predictions) between observed values.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond correlation: integrating environmentally and behaviourally mediated processes in models of marine mammal distributions

Palacios¹,

Baumgartner²,

Laidre³

et al. 2013

Endang. Species. Res.

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Marine species distribution modeling has seen explosive growth in recent years, and the Endangered Species Research Theme Section entitled 'Beyond marine mammal habitat modeling: applications for ecology and conservation' demonstrates that the field of marine mammalogy has been no exception. For the past decade, marine mammal ecologists have been developing habitat models with increasing proficiency and sophistication. However, these efforts have largely focused on correlative analyses of observed species−environment associations, which often have low explanatory power due to the absence of critical, but unaccounted for processes that are important drivers of animal distributions. Here we provide an overview of these processes, advocate for directed studies (e.g. tagging, prey sampling, focal follows, physiological assessment) to address how the processes influence species' distributions, and challenge the modeling community to incorporate these results into their efforts. We also identify a progression of modeling stages from correlative to confirmatory to mechanistic that should lead us to formulate increasingly robust and accurate predictions of species distributions rooted in greater ecological understanding. Given the on-going risks to marine mammals from human activities and climate change, such models are needed for conservation and management now more than ever. FREE REE ACCESS CCESS Contribution to the Theme Section 'Beyond marine mammal habitat modeling'Endang Species Res 22: 191-203, 2013 ecology and conservation' clearly demonstrate that the marine mammal research community has embraced these tools, and is applying them with increasing proficiency and sophistication (Gregr et al. 2013, this Theme Section).Marine mammal habitat models typically predict the spatial distribution or abundance of a species based on correlations between animal observations and attributes of the physical marine environment (e.g. seafloor terrain, sea surface temperature, proximity to the ice edge) or proxies of dynamic oceanographic processes that may directly or indirectly aggregate prey (Redfern et al. 2006). This approach often makes 2 implicit assumptions with regard to the environmental variables: (1) they adequately capture the underlying environmental gradients to which a species responds, and (2) they reasonably represent conditions that lead to enhanced feeding opportunities. These assumptions, and the focus on foraging success, reflect the limits of our understanding of how marine mammals interact with their environment as well as our ability to directly measure the prey field at scales relevant to a foraging predator.The correlative approach has generated considerable insight into the distribution of marine mammal species and their potential foraging areas. However, our models continue to capture only a small portion of the observed variability in species' occurrence or abundance. For example, the deviance explained (a measure of model fit) by models published in this Theme Section was generally be...

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Process‐based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

Cited by 222 publications

References 59 publications

The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California's watersheds

The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California's watersheds

Modelling plant invasion pathways in protected areas under climate change: implication for invasion management

Beyond correlation: integrating environmentally and behaviourally mediated processes in models of marine mammal distributions

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