Probabilistic modelling of drought events in China via 2-dimensional joint copula

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Li, Yi; Song, Songbai; Javed, Tehseen; Yao, Ning

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.022

Cited by 88 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…On the other hand, different threshold values in identifying a drought event may cause disparities regarding drought risk changes and may challenge the robustness of our results. Generally, the threshold value usually ranges between −1 and 0 (Xu et al, 2015;Ayantobo et al, 2017Ayantobo et al, , 2018Yuan et al, 2017;Jiao and Yuan, 2019). Herein, the threshold of −0.5 is employed to identify droughts varying from mild to extremely dry levels ( Table 2, Chen et al, 2018), which has been widely adopted in drought-related studies (Liu and Jiang, 2015;Xiao et al, 2017;Chen et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The drought condition is quantified with the SPEI developed by Vicente-Serrano et al (2010), which has been widely adopted in characterizing drought conditions (e.g., Ayantobo et al, 2018;Wen et al, 2019). The SPEI quantifies the extent of atmospheric water surplus and deficit relative to the longterm average condition by standardizing the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET).…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These prevailing tides of the literature almost reach a consensus that, with a higher saturation threshold and more intense and frequent dry spells driven by rising temperatures, drought conditions would considerably worsen in many regions of the world (Mitchell et al, 2016;Liu et al, 2018a, b). The potentially devastating impacts of more severe drought conditions on society raise considerable concerns, motivating a number of global socioeconomic assessments of future drought change impact (e.g., Below et al, 2007;Schilling et al, 2012). For instance, Liu et al (2018a) investigated global drought evolution and corresponding population exposures in additional 1.5 and 2 • C warming conditions using a set of CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates

Chen

Yin

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal to hold global warming to well below 2.0 ∘C and strives to limit it to 1.5 ∘C above preindustrial levels. Droughts with either intense severity or a long persistence could both lead to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure and ecosystem vulnerability, and they are projected to occur more frequently and trigger intensified socioeconomic consequences with global warming. However, existing assessments targeting global droughts under 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming levels usually neglect the multifaceted nature of droughts and might underestimate potential risks. This study, within a bivariate framework, quantifies the change in global drought conditions and corresponding socioeconomic exposures for additional 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming trajectories. The drought characteristics are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) combined with the run theory, with the climate scenarios projected by 13 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The copula functions and the most likely realization are incorporated to model the joint distribution of drought severity and duration, and changes in the bivariate return period with global warming are evaluated. Finally, the drought exposures of populations and regional gross domestic product (GDP) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are investigated globally. The results show that within the bivariate framework, the historical 50-year droughts may double across 58 % of global landmasses in a 1.5 ∘C warmer world, while when the warming climbs up to 2.0 ∘C, an additional 9 % of world landmasses would be exposed to such catastrophic drought deteriorations. More than 75 (73) countries' populations (GDP) will be completely affected by increasing drought risks under the 1.5 ∘C warming, while an extra 0.5 ∘C warming will further lead to an additional 17 countries suffering from a nearly unbearable situation. Our results demonstrate that limiting global warming to 1.5 ∘C, compared with 2 ∘C warming, can perceptibly mitigate the drought impacts over major regions of the world.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates

Chen

Yin

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Copulas are functions capable of modeling the dependency structure flexibly by not restricting the use of the same distribution for its marginals [25][26][27][28], and many applications were applied all over the world [29][30][31][32][33][34], primarily on a punctual approach.The limitation of the punctual approach is its focus on a local region, but the occurrence of drought may cover large areas. Thus, regional analysis has proven to be more efficient for drought management than the punctual approach [35,36]. Regionalization techniques are essential to reduce random fluctuations of a point-based approach and homogenizing drought analysis [37][38][39].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The limitation of the punctual approach is its focus on a local region, but the occurrence of drought may cover large areas. Thus, regional analysis has proven to be more efficient for drought management than the punctual approach [35,36]. Regionalization techniques are essential to reduce random fluctuations of a point-based approach and homogenizing drought analysis [37][38][39].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil

Filho

Martins

et al. 2020

Water

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The 2012–2018 drought was such an extreme event in the drought-prone area of Northeast Brazil that it triggered a discussion about proactive drought management. This paper aims at understanding the causes and consequences of this event and analyzes its frequency. A consecutive sequence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, at both the decadal and interannual scales, led to this severe and persistent drought. Drought duration and severity were analyzed using run theory at the hydrographic region scale as decision-makers understand impact analysis better at this scale. Copula functions were used to properly model drought joint characteristics as they presented different marginal distributions and an asymmetric behavior. The 2012–2018 drought in Ceará State had the highest mean bivariate return period ever recorded, estimated at 240 years. Considering drought duration and severity simultaneously at the level of the hydrographic regions improves risk assessment. This result advances our understanding of exceptional events. In this sense, the present work proposes the use of this analysis as a tool for proactive drought planning.

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Assessment of Drought Hazard Change in China under 2 ℃, 3 ℃ and 4 ℃ Temperature Rise Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

Zhu

Zhao

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Drought is one of the most disastrous extreme climate events. In-depth studies on the response of drought to climate warming are beneficial to improve drought risk management. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on eighteen climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Four drought characteristic indices (drought frequency, duration, intensity, and peak) were extracted and the drought hazard index (DHI) was constructed to evaluate drought hazards in China for the historical reference period and future 2, 3 and 4 temperature rise scenarios, and then the change in future drought hazard was analyzed. The results showed that the drought frequency in the eastern monsoon region of China had a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north and increased overall with the increase in warming level. Drought duration, intensity and peak showed a spatial pattern of high in northwest China and low in southeast China and increased significantly with increasing warming level. The DHI was relatively high in the northwest inland and southeast coast of China. Under the 2, 3 and 4 temperature increase scenarios in the future, except for the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the DHI in other climate regions in China will increase compared with that in the historical reference period. The national average increase values of DHI under the 3 and 4 temperature rise scenarios reach 1.5 times and 2 times that under the 2 temperature rise scenario, respectively. Hosted fileessoar.10512127.1.docx available at https://authorea.com/users/554242/articles/605537assessment-of-drought-hazard-change-in-china-under-2-3-and-4-temperature-rise-scenariosbased-on-cmip6-models

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Probabilistic modelling of drought events in China via 2-dimensional joint copula

Cited by 88 publications

References 66 publications

Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates

Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates

Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil

Assessment of Drought Hazard Change in China under 2 ℃, 3 ℃ and 4 ℃ Temperature Rise Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

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