Probabilistic risk analysis of process plants under seismic loading based on Monte Carlo simulations

Alessandri, Silvia; Caputo, Antonio Casimiro; Corritore, Daniele; Giannini, Renato; Paolacci, Fabrizio; Phan, Hoang Nam

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2017.12.013

Cited by 45 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Indeed, it is evident that the probability of having a catastrophic LOC is greater in the case of a more severe damage state. However, although the relationship between damage state and LOC state should be described by probabilistic models, it is more common in the literature for authors to use deterministic models [10,29]. This means that the probability of occurrence of the k-th LOC state conditioned to the occurrence of the d-th damage state is assumed to be 0 or 1.…”

Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Loc Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The same approach, based on default probabilities, was also used in [7,10] and many others. Table 1 summarizes the probabilities of occurrence of the physical-chemical phenomena presented in Subsection 2.2, for some types of stored materials [24].…”

Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Physical-chemical Phenomena As mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is the simplest approach, but it is, however, also the most common in the literature (e.g. [10,29]).…”

Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Loc Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…pipes, vessel, valves). Furthermore, Alessandri et al [10] used MC simulations for the analysis of domino effects. They developed software which could be used to implement MC simulations in the case of tank farms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes

Celano

Dolšek

2021

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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The rapid expansion of the built environment has resulted in the coexistence of industrial facilities and urban centres. Following recent major earthquakes throughout the world, it has become clear that multi-hazard domino effects can significantly increase the risk of fatalities, environmental problems and losses. This complex phenomenon is not yet well understood. In this paper, the problem is treated by decomposing it into several subproblems which are described by simplified probabilistic models. These models are then coupled with the Monte Carlo method to estimate the annual probability of fatality for an individual who is continuously standing in a location of interest and to estimate fatality risk maps for an area of interest. Emphasis is placed on considering multi-hazard domino effects, which can be triggered within an industrial area due to the damage caused by earthquakes. Thus it is considered that fatalities can be caused: a) as a direct consequence of seismic damage to a unit b) as a direct physical and/or chemical consequence due to the loss of containment of hazardous material, and c) as a consequence of domino triggered by physical and chemical events such as fire, explosion, and toxic dispersion. The capabilities of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by calculating fatality risk maps for a hypothetical industrialized urban area. It is shown that disregarding multi-hazard domino effects in the estimation of fatality risk could lead to significant underestimation of the fatality risk in an industrialized urban area. Thus, it is necessary to account for multi-hazard domino effects. However, different teams of engineers can enhance the models for the probability of fatality due to various phenomena, which will improve the accuracy of the proposed methodology.

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Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Loc Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Physical-chemical Phenomena As mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is the simplest approach, but it is, however, also the most common in the literature (e.g. [10,29]).…”

Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Loc Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes

Celano

Dolšek

2021

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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“…Such models are often used for seismic risk analysis (e.g. [8]- [10]) due to their computational simplicity but most disregard the influence of floating roofs. For example, a procedure for estimating the seismic vulnerability of tank farms was introduced in [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic performance of a floating roof in an unanchored broad storage tank: Experimental tests and numerical simulations

Caprinozzi

Paolacci

Bursi

et al. 2021

Journal of Fluids and Structures

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Liquid steel storage tanks equipped with floating roofs are critical components of industrial facilities because they often store hazardous material. In the past, major earthquakes have caused large vertical displacements of floating roofs. Consequently, roof failure and/or content loss has occurred, which has seriously endangered the surrounding environment and community. Therefore, research interest in this topic remains high, giving rise to experimental campaigns and investigatory studies concerning both design and assessment approaches. Along these lines, the first part of this paper briefly introduces a shaking table test performed on a scaled steel storage tank equipped with a floating roof. This test provided useful experimental data about the vertical displacement histories of floating roofs subject to seismic loading. Subsequently, a simplified model and a refined finite element model aimed at simulating the shaking table test program are introduced and described. Relevant experimental and numerical outcomes are then presented and discussed. Finally, we performed a parametric study related to the simplified model to highlight the most relevant parameters involved. It is shown that both the refined finite element model and the simplified model were capable of simulating the roof vertical displacement histories observed in the shaking table test. The former model has higher fidelity but appears to be excessively time-consuming, whilst the latter is more suitable for risk assessment purposes.

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Risk‐targeted fragility functions considering a system performance requirement and domino effects

Celano,

Dolšek

2023

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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The design of structures depends on the performance requirements that are usually defined through structural codes for single units. This approach may not be optimal because major earthquakes affect the built environment and can also trigger domino effects due to fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. To overcome this issue, we introduce a probabilistic framework for defining unit performance requirements by means of risk‐targeted fragility functions that account for potential domino effects and an overall system performance requirement. The system performance requirement is demonstrated by the potential loss of life, which represents the tolerated number of fatalities per year expected in the earthquake‐affected area. The proposed framework decomposes the problem into a damage‐based fatality analysis, population analysis and seismic hazard analysis, which can be performed and improved independently by engineers with the relevant expertise. The damage‐based fatality analysis includes a series of Monte Carlo simulations using logic trees to account for domino effects. These analyses are then coupled with an iterative risk estimation aimed at identifying the critical units in a system and estimating their risk‐targeted fragility functions, which can then be used for the design of a single unit. The methodology is demonstrated by estimating the potential loss of life due to a seismic event in an urban industrial area. It is shown that the risk‐targeted fragility functions of hazardous storage tanks can be estimated in a few iterations based on disaggregating the potential loss of life. The pilot research presented in the paper provides new possibilities for defining seismic design parameters of structures.

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Probabilistic risk analysis of process plants under seismic loading based on Monte Carlo simulations

Cited by 45 publications

References 34 publications

Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes

Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes

Seismic performance of a floating roof in an unanchored broad storage tank: Experimental tests and numerical simulations

Risk‐targeted fragility functions considering a system performance requirement and domino effects

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