Probabilistic Stability Analyses of Embankments Based on Finite-Element Method

Xu, Bin; Low, Bak Kong

doi:10.1061/(asce)1090-0241(2006)132:11(1444)

Cited by 163 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…If the Advanced Model includes random variables that the Base Model does not consider, and if it is not possible to apply FOSM Taylor's method to check the contribution of each variable to the variance of the problem, then a sensitivity analysis should be performed to identify the variables that should be consider as random. The proposed Level 3 technique is the Monte Carlo Method [24].…”

Section: Reliability Analysis On the Advanced Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis

et al. 2012

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ElsevierAltarejos García, L.; Escuder Bueno, I.; Serrano Lombillo, AJ.; Gómez De Membrillera Ortuño, M. (2012). Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis. Structural Safety. 34(1):1-13. doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.01.001. METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE BY SLIDING IN CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS IN THE CONTEXT OF RISK ANALYSISJanuary 12 th , 2012 AbstractDam safety based on risk analysis methodologies demand quantification of the risk of the dam-reservoir system. This means that, for a given initial state of the system, and for the several failure modes considered, it is necessary to estimate the probability of the load events and the conditional probability of response of the system for a given load event, as well as estimating the consequences on the environment for the obtained response of the system. The following paper focuses in the second of these probabilities, that is, quantifying the conditional probability of response of the system, for a given load event, and for the specific case of concrete gravity dams. Dam-reservoir systems have a complex behavior which has been tackled traditionally by simplifications in the formulation of the models and adoption of safety factors. The purpose of the methodology described in this paper is to improve the estimation of the conditional probability of response of the damreservoir system for concrete gravity dams, using complex behavior models based on numerical simulation techniques, together with reliability techniques of different levels of precision are applied, including Level 3 reliability techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. The paper includes an example of application of the proposed methodology to a Spanish concrete gravity dam, considering the failure mode of sliding along the rock-concrete interface. In the context of risk analysis, the results obtained for conditional probability of failure allow several conclusions related to their validity and safety implications that acquire a significant relevance due to the innovation of the study performed.

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Section: Reliability Analysis On the Advanced Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The concept of limit state surface is proposed to avoid this problem [24,25]. The limit state or response surface (a.k.a.…”

Section: Reliability Analysis On the Advanced Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis

et al. 2012

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“…A practical procedure for applying probabilistic stability analysis of structures is presented by Xu and Low (2006) first for analysis of embankments. Several years later, Li and Low (2010) followed by applied a similar probabilistic analysis into underground rock excavations (circular tunnel structure) using response surface method and SORM.…”

Section: Application Of Reliability In Tunnel Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

Gharouni-Nik

Naeimi

Ahadi

et al. 2014

Int J Adv Struct Eng

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In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in different design scenarios. Finally, the reliability index values are obtained for the entire support structure in different design scenarios. The results of the work demonstrates that proposed reliability evaluation method of tunnel support system is effective not only for investigating the reliability of individual elements in the structure, but also for building an overall estimation about reliability performance of the entire tunnel structure.

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“…Several new slope stability analyses have been done using this method and the stochastic nite element method [16][17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty assessment of critical excavation depth of vertical unsupported cuts in undrained clay using random eld theorem

Chenari

2016

Scientia Iranica

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KEYWORDSCritical excavation depth; Probability of failure; Spatial variability; Random nite di erence method; Random limit equilibrium method.Abstract. Classical methods such as limit equilibrium or limit analysis, dealing with the stability analysis of open cuts and trenches and calculation of critical excavation depth for them, do not fully satisfy the theoretical requirements for stability problems leading to di erent solutions depending on the adopted method. It is now appreciated that geomaterials exhibit considerable heterogeneity, caused by the lithological and inherent variation, which cannot be fully covered by simple methods. This paper highlights the uncertainty embedded in critical excavation depth calculation, arising from spatial variability of shear strength parameters, using Random Finite Di erence Method (RFDM) and Random Limit Equilibrium Method (RLEM). In the present study, the lognormally distributed undrained shear strength is considered spatially correlated throughout the domain. Surface cohesion value and the shear strength density were introduced as the deterministic parameters along with the coe cient of variation of undrained shear strength and its scale of uctuation as stochastic parameters; these parameters were studied to see their e ect on uncertainty in critical excavation depth estimation. The results clearly demonstrated the uncertainty in critical excavation depth arising from the inherent variability of shear strength parameters using the RFDM results; however, RLEM did not prove to re ect such uncertainty e ciently due to local averaging in prescribed failure surfaces.

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Probabilistic Stability Analyses of Embankments Based on Finite-Element Method

Cited by 163 publications

References 40 publications

Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis

Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis

Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

Uncertainty assessment of critical excavation depth of vertical unsupported cuts in undrained clay using random eld theorem

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