Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Local and Regional Seismic Sources Along the Pacific Coast of Central America with Emphasis on the Role of Selected Uncertainties

Zamora, Natalia; Babeyko, Andrey

doi:10.1007/s00024-019-02372-4

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…In the last two decades, we have witnessed the rapid development of the methodology of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA; Satake, 2014), as well as its applications globally (Davies et al., 2018; Løvholt et al., 2014). Examples include Japan (Annaka et al., 2007; De Risi & Goda, 2016; De Risi et al., 2017), Australia (Burbidge et al., 2008), southeast Asia (Horspool et al., 2014; Suppasri et al., 2012), New Zealand (Lane et al., 2013; Power et al., 2013), United States (Geist & Parsons, 2009; González et al., 2009; Omira et al., 2015), the Caribbean (Hayes et al., 2014), Mexico (Mori et al., 2017), the Pacific coast of Central America (Zamora & Babeyko, 2019), the Mediterranean (Sørensen et al., 2012), the northwest Indian Ocean (Heidarzadeh & Kijko, 2011) and the SCS (Li et al., 2016; Li et al., 2018; Sepúlveda et al., 2019). PTHA estimates the likelihood that the tsunami wave amplitude (or inundation depth) at a particular location will exceed a given level within a certain period of time (Geist & Parsons, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Maximum tsunami wave amplitude (wave crest to mean sea level) along the coasts of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan Island during the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku tsunami. (Lane et al, 2013;Power et al, 2013), United States (Geist & Parsons, 2009;González et al, 2009;Omira et al, 2015), the Caribbean (Hayes et al, 2014), Mexico (Mori et al, 2017), the Pacific coast of Central America (Zamora & Babeyko, 2019), the Mediterranean (Sørensen et al, 2012), the northwest Indian Ocean (Heidarzadeh & Kijko, 2011) and the SCS (Li et al, 2016;Li et al, 2018;Sepúlveda et al, 2019). PTHA estimates the likelihood that the tsunami wave amplitude (or inundation depth) at a particular location will exceed a given level within a certain period of time (Geist & Parsons, 2006).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Southeast Coast of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan Island

Yuan

Wei

et al. 2021

JGR Solid Earth

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Tsunami impacts along the coastline of Chinese Mainland received little attention until the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami devastated the neighboring country of Japan and produced 30-60 cm wave amplitudes along the East China coasts (Figure 1). In the wake of the Tohoku event, the emergency authorities of China started to ponder how a similar event elsewhere in the Pacific Rim might affect the coastal fringe of China, where the coastal communities built on low land with hundreds of millions of residents and vast infrastructures would be devastated by severe coastal inundation.For a long period of time, the tsunami hazards in Chinese Mainland were not fully addressed due to two main reasons: a vast and shallow Abstract A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) study on the Chinese Mainland and the Taiwan Island was conducted. Characterized by broad and shallow continental shelves, the offshore region along Chinese Mainland's east coast yields a significant nonlinear effect and bottom friction to the propagating long waves. To address these shallow-water effects, a fully nonlinear Boussinesq model was used in the computation-based PTHA framework. We found that the inappropriate usage of the linear wave model could considerably overestimate the tsunami hazards along the East China Sea (ECS) and the Yellow Sea. Tsunami hazard along the coastline of Chinese Mainland is generally moderate. Elevated tsunami hazard levels are found along both flanks of the Yangtze and Pearl estuaries. The probability of these coastlines impacted by 1 m or greater tsunami waves (at 10-m isobath) is about 14%-40% in next century. The shallow and tongue-shaped submarine terrain amplifies the hazard level by trapping the tsunami energy in these areas. Major subduction zones in the Northwest Pacific were identified as the main sources of destructive events along the coast of ECS and the Taiwan Island, while the Manila Trench is the main source zone that threatens the Northern South China Sea. The tsunami hazards generated by the crustal earthquakes are modest, yet not negligible, particularly in the Taiwan Strait. We found the risk of tsunami inundation along the coast of Shanghai is low based on the hazard curves of total water level that incorporates the aleatory uncertainty of tides. Plain Language Summary Tsunamis are infrequent yet devastating natural hazards. Most tsunami waves are generated by underwater earthquakes, and propagate onshore with transformation of wave amplitude and wave length. The Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment is a quantitative means to estimate the probability of tsunamis affecting the coastal areas of interest, with the purposes of enhancing public awareness and assisting disaster-mitigation activities. Our study aims to address the common concerns of whether the subduction zones in the Pacific Ocean and the local crustal faults may endanger China's low-lying coastal areas that are susceptible to tsunami inundation. The main finding of the study is that both flanks of the Yangtze Estuary a...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Southeast Coast of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan Island

Yuan

Wei

et al. 2021

JGR Solid Earth

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“…Worst-case scenarios consist of simplified tsunami sources, characterized by one or more rupture planes with homogeneous slip, instantaneous and simultaneous ruptures. Probabilistic or hybrid probabilistic-deterministic approaches such as Brizuela et al (2014) and Zamora and Babeyko (2020) were not considered here but might be employed in future work.…”

Section: Tsunami Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A first estimation of tsunami hazard of the Pacific coast of Costa Rica from local and distant seismogenic sources

Chacón-Barrantes

Arozarena-Llopis²

2021

Ocean Dynamics

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Costa Rica has been affected by several local and distant tsunamis in the past, but the historical information is scarce and incomplete. Its Pacific coast stretches for over a thousand kilometers, and tsunami hazard has never been evaluated for its full extent. Numerical modeling of tsunami propagation and inundation is a useful tool to assess tsunami hazard, particularly in cases with limited historical information available. Here, we perform a first estimation of tsunami hazard for the Pacific coast of Costa Rica from seismogenic sources, by numerical propagation of 57 local and distant tsunamis to a depth of 20 m. The results of our study identified tsunami sources that are particularly threatening for Costa Rica and determined locations with higher tsunami hazard. For the analysis, the Pacific coast of Costa Rica was divided into segments and subsegments based on differences in continental slope morphology. Subsegments with higher tsunami heights were Southwest Nicoya Peninsula and West Osa Peninsula, and in a lesser extent North Guanacaste, North Nicoya Peninsula, and Central Pacific. Regions with long and gentle slopes and narrow continental shelf were affected by higher tsunami waves, due to more efficient tsunami energy transmission to the shelf and reduced energy loss while traveling through a narrow shelf. On the opposite, steeper continental slopes reflected most of the tsunami energy, causing smaller tsunami heights nearshore, regardless of the shelf width. Nevertheless, other effects played a major role, like curved coastlines that focused tsunami energy, wave refraction, interference, and trapped edge waves. Distant tsunamis dominated the threat, with tsunamis coming from the Tonga-Kermadec and the Colombia-Ecuador Trenches causing the greatest heights due to directivity, and arrival times of about 15 h and 75 min, respectively. Local tsunamis had short arrival times but a localized impact, mainly at the shoreline in front of the generation region but were also affected by tsunami focusing, wave refraction, and edge waves. Outer rise and Osa sources caused the lowest impact within local sources. These results provide a guide for emergency planners to prioritize coastal locations and tsunami sources for tsunami preparedness actions and warning protocols.

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“…A framework for modern PTHA was first presented in the pioneering work of Geist and Parsons (2006). This framework formed the basis for developing numerous PTHA research works (e.g., Burbidge et al, 2008;Otero, 2008;Taubenböck et al, 2008;Suppasri et al, 2012;Yadav et al, 2013;Horspool et al, 2014;Omira et al, 2015;Shin et al, 2015;El-Hussain et al, 2016;Griffin et al, 2016;Hoechner et al, 2016;Zamora and Babeyko, 2020). 7 years after the 2004 event, the massive 2011 Japan tsunami raised the need to consider the complexity of the earthquake rupture in the PTHA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis applies to different geographic scales. These scales include global-scale PTHA (Davies et al, 2018), regional-scale PTHA (Thio et al, 2007;Sorensen et al, 2012;Power et al, 2013;Lorito et al, 2015;Omira et al, 2015;Li et al, 2016;Zamora and Babeyko, 2020;Basili et al, 2021), national-scale PTHA (Grezio et al, 2012;Suppasri et al, 2012;Horspool et al, 2014;De Risi and Goda, 2016;El-Hussain et al, 2016;Davies and Griffin, 2019;Kotani et al, 2020), and local-scale PTHA (González et al, 2009;Omira et al, 2016;Volpe et al, 2019). Detailed PTHA of a specific coastal segment community (local-scale) often involves highresolution inundation modeling and treatment of uncertainties from local effects, such as the tidal stage (Omira et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Meso and Macro Tidal Areas. Application to the Cádiz Bay, Spain

et al. 2021

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Tsunami hazard can be analyzed from both deterministic and probabilistic points of view. The deterministic approach is based on a “credible” worst case tsunami, which is often selected from historical events in the region of study. Within the probabilistic approach (PTHA, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis), statistical analysis can be carried out in particular regions where historical records of tsunami heights and runup are available. In areas where these historical records are scarce, synthetic series of events are usually generated using Monte Carlo approaches. Commonly, the sea level variation and the currents forced by the tidal motion are either disregarded or considered and treated as aleatory uncertainties in the numerical models. However, in zones with a macro and meso tidal regime, the effect of the tides on the probability distribution of tsunami hazard can be highly important. In this work, we present a PTHA methodology based on the generation of synthetic seismic catalogs and the incorporation of the sea level variation into a Monte Carlo simulation. We applied this methodology to the Bay of Cádiz area in Spain, a zone that was greatly damaged by the 1755 earthquake and tsunami. We build a database of tsunami numerical simulations for different variables: faults, earthquake magnitudes, epicenter locations and sea levels. From this database we generate a set of scenarios from the synthetic seismic catalogs and tidal conditions based on the probabilistic distribution of the involved variables. These scenarios cover the entire range of possible tsunami events in the synthetic catalog (earthquakes and sea levels). Each tsunami scenario is propagated using the tsunami numerical model C3, from the source region to the target coast (Cádiz Bay). Finally, we map the maximum values for a given probability of the selected variables (tsunami intensity measures) producing a set of thematic hazard maps. 1000 different time series of combined tsunamigenic earthquakes and tidal levels were synthetically generated using the Monte Carlo technique. Each time series had a 10000-year duration. The tsunami characteristics were statistically analyzed to derive different thematic maps for the return periods of 500, 1000, 5000, and 10000 years, including the maximum wave elevation, the maximum current speed, the maximum Froude number, and the maximum total forces.

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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Local and Regional Seismic Sources Along the Pacific Coast of Central America with Emphasis on the Role of Selected Uncertainties

Cited by 12 publications

References 72 publications

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Southeast Coast of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan Island

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Southeast Coast of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan Island

A first estimation of tsunami hazard of the Pacific coast of Costa Rica from local and distant seismogenic sources

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Meso and Macro Tidal Areas. Application to the Cádiz Bay, Spain

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