Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Pyroclastic Density Currents From Pumice Cone Eruptions at Aluto Volcano, Ethiopia

Clarke, Ben Andrew; Tierz, Pablo; Calder, Eliza S.; Yirgu, Gezahegn

doi:10.3389/feart.2020.00348

Cited by 21 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 103 publications

(204 reference statements)

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“…2. Parameterization: We refer to Clarke et al (2020) for an example of a probabilistic hazard assessment of PDC invasion at Aluto, conditional on the occurrence of a silicic eruption producing PDCs at the volcano. In that work, the authors used an Energy Cone-Monte Carlo approach (e.g., Sandri et al, 2018; to quantify aleatory uncertainty in PDC 10.1029/2020GC009219 inundation at Aluto.…”

Section: Node 6: Reaching Area Of Hazardous Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, we compute the following cases for P (PDC; 50 years): (1) only epistemic uncertainty for Node 5 ( Figure 4c) is incorporated, while the mean probabilities (i.e., aleatory uncertainty only) are used in Nodes 1 and 3 ( Figure 7a); (2) only epistemic uncertainty for Node 1 (Figure 4a) is incorporated, while the mean probability for Node 3 and the maximum probability for Node 5 (Clarke et al, 2020) are used ( Figure 7b);…”

Section: Occurrence Of Pyroclastic Density Currentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… b We renormalize the values in Clarke et al (2020) to ensure that the vent‐opening probabilities integrate to 1.…”

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Definition : Spatial occurrence of silicic eruptions (i.e., vent opening) at Aluto volcano. Parameterization : We apply the same approach as Clarke (2020), based on field evidence that suggests that individual pumice cones are monogenetic and that pumice cone vents are distributed across the edifice (Clarke, 2020; Fontijn et al, 2018; Hutchison, Biggs, et al, 2016; Hutchison, Pyle, et al, 2016). A data set with the locations of 96 past eruptive vents (Clarke, 2020; Hutchison et al, 2015), assumed to have been formed since approximately 55–60 ka (Hutchison, Pyle, et al, 2016), is used to fit a Gaussian symmetric kernel function (e.g., Connor et al, 2018; Connor & Hill, 1995; Weller et al, 2006), with bandwidth ~0.7 km (Clarke et al, 2020), to provide us with a bivariate PDF (UTM Easting‐Northing) for the probability of future vent opening at Aluto, given eruption. Given the very limited information about the ages of each of the specific vents, we are not able to reject the hypothesis of temporal stationarity in the vent‐opening pattern.…”

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Definition : Occurrence of different hazardous phenomena on specific points around the volcano. Parameterization : We refer to Clarke et al (2020) for an example of a probabilistic hazard assessment of PDC invasion at Aluto, conditional on the occurrence of a silicic eruption producing PDCs at the volcano. In that work, the authors used an Energy Cone‐Monte Carlo approach (e.g., Sandri et al, 2018; Tierz et al, 2016; Tierz, Sandri, Costa, Sulpizio, et al, 2016) to quantify aleatory uncertainty in PDC inundation at Aluto.…”

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Tierz

Clarke

Calder

et al. 2020

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Aluto is a peralkaline rhyolitic caldera located in a highly populated area in central Ethiopia. Its postcaldera eruptive activity has mainly consisted of self-similar, pumice-cone-building eruptions of varying size and vent location. These eruptions are explosive, generating hazardous phenomena that could impact proximal to distal areas from the vent. Volcanic hazard assessments in Ethiopia and the East African Rift are still limited in number. In this study, we develop an event tree model for Aluto volcano. The event tree is doubly useful: It facilitates the design of a conceptual model for the volcano and provides a framework to quantify volcanic hazard. We combine volcanological data from past and recent research at Aluto, and from a tool to objectively derive analog volcanoes (VOLCANS), to parameterize the event tree, including estimates of the substantial epistemic uncertainty. Results indicate that the probability of a silicic eruption in the next 50 years is highly uncertain, ranging from 2% to 35%. This epistemic uncertainty has a critical influence on event-tree estimates for other volcanic events, like the probability of occurrence of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) in the next 50 years. The 90% credible interval for the latter is 5-16%, considering only the epistemic uncertainty in conditional eruption size and PDC occurrence, but 2-23% when adding the epistemic uncertainty in the probability of eruption in 50 years. Despite some anticipated challenges, we envisage that our event tree could be translated to other rift volcanoes, making it an important tool to quantify volcanic hazard in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Ethiopia is the second most populous nation (estimated~110 million inhabitants; e.g., World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2019) and the fastest growing economy in Africa (World Bank, https://data. worldbank.org/region/sub-saharan-africa). Ethiopia also holds the largest number of Holocene volcanoes (~60) in the African continent (e.g., Global Volcanism Program, 2013). Globally, Ethiopia ranks second only to Indonesia in having the largest number of active volcanoes at the highest level of uncertainty related to volcanic hazard (i.e., in terms of available data and monitoring activities, Aspinall et al., 2011). Additionally, exposure to volcanic hazard is high in Ethiopia (Aspinall et al., 2011) and is rapidly increasing with continued economic and industrial development (Aspinall et al., 2011; United Nations

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Section: Node 6: Reaching Area Of Hazardous Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Occurrence Of Pyroclastic Density Currentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… b We renormalize the values in Clarke et al (2020) to ensure that the vent‐opening probabilities integrate to 1.…”

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Tierz

Clarke

Calder

et al. 2020

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Calibration strategies of PDC kinetic energy models and their application to the construction of hazard maps

et al. 2022

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Probabilistic, scenario-based hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

Aravena,

Tadini,

Bevilacqua

et al. 2024

Bull Volcanol

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We assess the volcanic hazard posed by pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, using a probabilistic approach based on the analysis of calibrated numerical simulations. We address the expected variability of explosive eruptions at Tungurahua volcano by adopting a scenario-based strategy, where we consider three cases: violent Strombolian to Vulcanian eruption (VEI 2), sub-Plinian eruption (VEI 3), and sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption (VEI 4–5). PDCs are modeled using the branching energy cone model and the branching box model, considering reproducible calibration procedures based on the geological record of Tungurahua volcano. The use of different calibration procedures and reference PDC deposits allows us to define uncertainty ranges for the inundation probability of each scenario. Numerical results indicate that PDCs at Tungurahua volcano propagate preferentially toward W and NW, where a series of catchment ravines can be recognized. Two additional valleys of channelization are observed in the N and NE flanks of the volcano, which may affect the city of Baños. The mean inundation probability calculated for Baños is small (6 ± 3%) for PDCs similar to those emplaced during recent VEI 2 eruptions (July 2006, February 2008, May 2010, July 2013, February 2014, and February 2016), and on the order of 13 ± 4% for a PDC similar to that produced during the sub-Plinian phase of the August 2006 eruption (VEI 3). The highest intensity scenario (VEI 4–5), for which we present and implement a novel calibration procedure based on a few control points, produces inundation areas that nearly always include inhabited centers such as Baños, Puela, and Cotaló, among others. This calibration method is well suited for eruptive scenarios that lack detailed field information, and could be replicated for poorly known active volcanoes around the world.

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Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Pyroclastic Density Currents From Pumice Cone Eruptions at Aluto Volcano, Ethiopia

Cited by 21 publications

References 103 publications

Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Calibration strategies of PDC kinetic energy models and their application to the construction of hazard maps

Probabilistic, scenario-based hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

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