Probability and Social Science

Abstract

This Book Series is devoted to examining and solving the major methodological problems social sciences are facing. Take for example the gap between empirical and theoretical research, the explanatory power of models, the relevance of multilevel analysis, the weakness of cumulative knowledge, the role of ordinary knowledge in the research process, or the place which should be reserved to "time, change and history" when explaining social facts. These problems are well known and yet they are seldom treated in depth in scientifi c literature because of their general nature. So that these problems may be examined and solutions found, the series prompts and fosters the setting-up of international multidisciplinary research teams, and it is work by these teams that appears in the Book Series. The series can also host books produced by a single author which follow the same objectives. Proposals for manuscripts and plans for collective books will be carefully examined. The epistemological scope of these methodological problems is obvious and resorting to Philosophy of Science becomes a necessity. The main objective of the Series remains however the methodological solutions that can be applied to the problems in hand. Therefore the books of the Series are closely connected to the research practices.

Quantifying paradigm change in demography

“…Still, with this caveat in mind, we argue that a quantitative analysis of demographic paradigms, terms, and ideas similar to the one presented above can help the discipline enhance its self-knowledge. At such a general level, in this example for the English and French collections the findings seem to support the hypothesis of "cumulativity" in population sciences (Courgeau 2012, see also Crimmins 1993and Keyfitz 1993 for discussion), in which the new paradigms complement rather than substitute the existing ones. There are many ways in which such an analysis could be extended: from analysing phrases from different language corpora (e.g., Chinese, Spanish, German, Russian, Italian); through looking at the prevalence of different demographic paradigms, theories and concepts as well as the interactions between them; to attempts at the prediction of future trends and the identification of "hot topics" of demographic thought.…”

“…Such methods not only allow bringing the context directly into the analysis, as in multilevel models (Crimmins 1993), but also have the potential to analyse the interactions between various systems comprised of individuals, groups, and institutions. In this way they can address some of the theoretical challenges of population sciences, mentioned e.g., by Xie (2000), Burch (2003), and Courgeau (2012), and also presented in Figure 5.…”

“…The trends for "event history/biographical analysis" and "analyse biographique", despite different levels, largely exhibit similar directions in both languages, but indicate clear contamination with non-demographic meanings up until the 1970s -as noted by Courgeau (2012), the approach was introduced to demography only in the early 1980s. This is easy to verify by looking at the examples of results displayed by the Google Ngram tool alongside the trends: prior to the 1980s they mainly derive from such areas as psychology, literature, sociology, or aesthetics.…”

“…In accordance with the long-standing empirical tradition of demography as a standalone research area within social sciences (Morgan and Lynch 2001;Courgeau 2012), this paper aims to include measurable data in the studies of the changes in demographic paradigms and theories. After Courgeau and Franck (2007), and following the original suggestions of Granger (1994), we interpret paradigms as studies of different "scientific objects".…”

The Western Space Policies under the Influence of International Factors: Mutuality of Russia’s Case

“…Quantitative methodology is based on correlation analysis of time series with few samples (Courgeau, 2012). By comparing various financial data and taking into account the time shift or lag of different series, correlation was sought between them.…”